Fundamental Overview
The USD remains under pressure amid the aggressive market pricing for rate cuts and better global growth expectations following the recent huge Chinese easing measures. It’s now a battle between global growth supporting the risk sentiment and weighing on the greenback and the aggressive rates pricing which could be scaled back if the US data starts to pick up.
On the EUR side, the market has basically fully priced in a back-to-back cut in October from the ECB following the latest weak Eurozone PMIs and “leaks” of ECB officials being open for a rate cut in October. The expectations were reinforced further this morning following the soft French and Spain CPI figures.
EURUSD Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that EURUSD got rejected once again around the 1.12 handle. The sellers stepped in with a defined risk above the level to position for a drop into the major trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the 1.13 handle next or wait to buy the dip around the trendline.
EURUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have another minor trendline defining the current bullish momentum. The buyers will likely keep on leaning on the trendline to position for a break above the 1.12 resistance. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the major trendline.
EURUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add as buyers will look to buy the dip around these levels, while the sellers will look for a break below the trendline and the 1.1120 level to increase the bearish bets into new lows. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming Catalysts
Today, we conclude the week with the US PCE report.
