Fundamental Overview
The US Dollar started the week on the backfoot as the odds of a Harris victory jumped higher leading to a pullback in the Trump’s trades.
Everything hinges on the US election now with a red sweep seen as the most bullish scenario for the greenback, while a blue sweep as the most bearish.
The price action will likely be choppy until we start to get a better sense of who’s going to win, so the best strategy would be to wait for the results, because the trend that will be set will likely last for months anyway.
EURUSD Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that EURUSD bounced off of the key swing level at 1.0777 as the buyers stepped in with a defined risk below the level to position for a pullback into the 1.10 handle. The sellers will want to see the price breaking below the swing level to increase the bearish bets into the 1.06 handle next.
EURUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the current bullish momentum on this timeframe. The buyers will likely lean on the trendline to keep targeting new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to position for the break below the key 1.0777 level.
EURUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see more clearly the recent price action with higher highs and higher lows indicating a bullish trend. There’s not much else we can add here as the election noise will likely lead to a choppy price action until we get the results. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming Catalysts
Today is the US Presidential Election Day but we will also get the US ISM Services PMI report. On Thursday, we have the US Jobless Claims and the FOMC Policy Decision. On Friday, we conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report.
