The EURUSD is trading to a new session high as rates continue to move to the downside. The 2 year yield is trading at intraday lows at 3.924% or -5.6 basis points. The 10 year yield is also at new intraday lows at 3.369% -7.0 basis points.
Looking at the hourly chart, the price has moved above the swing highs from last Friday's trade between 1.1038 and 1.1044. Earlier today, the price briefly moved above those levels only to back off and retest the 50% midpoint (after the stronger ADP) of the range since last week's high at 1.1018, before moving back to the upside. On the top side, the next target comes between 1.1066 and 1.1075. Those levels correspond to swing highs going back to April 13, April 14, and April 25. A move above that level/area would target the extreme from last Wednesday at 1.10950.
Helping the upside bias today happened in the early Asian session when the price moved above the near converged 100 and 200 hour moving averages (blue and green lines in the chart above). That break turned the bias more to the upside, and gave more control to the buyers.
Going through the FOMC rate decision later today, moving below those moving averages at 1.1008 and 1.10084, along with the natural support at the 1.1000 level, would be needed to increase the bearish bias (and reverse control once again). Absent that and the buyers are more in control.
Bigger picture, a move higher will have traders targeting 1.11316 up to 1.1184 swing area (see red number circles on the chart below.). Move above that area and the 61.8% retracement at 1.1274 would start to catch the traders attention.
On the downside, the price low yesterday tested the 50% midpoint of the range since the 2021 high. That level comes in at 1.0942. If the price should break below that level and stay below, a rotation back toward the rising 100 day moving average 1.0773, would be targeted.
