The GBPUSD is surging to the upside in trading today, and in the process has seen the price extend above its 200-hour moving average at 1.23905. The high price has reached up to 1.2446 so far. That level took the price of the pair, just above a swing area high at 1.24454, but fell just short of the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the May 10 high at 1.24493.
The price has backed off (seller's leaning against the 38.2% retracement) with the low price reaching 1.24175.
On the downside, for buyers looking for more corrective probing to the upside, it would take a move back below the 200-hour moving average at 1.23905.
Conversely, for the sellers against the 38.2% retracement, staying below that retracement level is the risk now.
Overall, the run to the upside today is strong in the short term, but if the buyers are to take more control getting and staying above the 38.2% retracement is still required. That is the minimum retracement that would show buyers willingness to take back more control from the sellers. Absent that, and it's just a plain-vanilla retracement in a trend-like move down since the high on May 10.
