The pattern of late in the GBPUSD is that the moves above the 100 hour MA have FAILED. That gives the sellers more control as long as the price can remain below that MA level.

When looking at the 4-hour chart, the last move higher on Friday also tested a key 200 bar MA and found willing sellers. That MA will also be a key level going forward.

On the downside lows from last week are the next targets followed by a swing area between 1.2343 and 1.2365.

UK inflation will be reported on Wednesday. If it is lower than expectations, it could lead to a dovish turn in Bank of England's interest rate expectations, negatively impacting the sterling. The annualized UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) is predicted to decrease to 8.3% from March's 10.1%, based on a Reuters poll.

Presently, money markets foresee an 80% likelihood of the Bank of England raising interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.75% in June, and a 79% chance of a 5% Bank Rate by September.

Last Friday's CFTC data displayed that the net GBP long position held by IMM speculators reached an 18-month high during the week ending May 16, a period which saw GBP/USD reach a 54-week high of 1.2679 following softer than anticipated U.S. CPI data on May 10. IMM speculators have maintained a net GBP long position since mid-April. If the balance of positions gets too offsides, it can lead to move in the opposite direction if the data does not support the net position.

With the positions at 18 month highs and the position is long (buyers), the risk is more to the downside.