USD

  • The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.
  • Fed Chair Powell maintained a neutral stance as he said that it was premature to react to the recent inflation data given possible bumps on the way to their 2% target.
  • The US CPI and the US PPI beat expectations for the second consecutive month.
  • The US Jobless Claims beat expectations.
  • The latest US Manufacturing PMI beat expectations while the Services PMI missed slightly. Both the measures remain in expansion though.
  • The US Consumer Confidence missed expectations although the labour market details improved.
  • The market expects the first rate cut in June.

GBP

  • The BoE left interest rates unchanged as expected but with Haskel and Mann this time voting for a hold instead of a hike.
  • The employment report missed expectations with an uptick in the unemployment rate and an easing in wage growth.
  • The UK CPI missed expectations across the board but with Services inflation remaining sticky, which continues to support the BoE’s patient stance.
  • The latest UK PMIs showed the Services PMI missing expectations slightly and the Manufacturing PMI beating.
  • The market expects the first rate cut in June.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

GBPUSD Technical Analysis
GBPUSD Daily

On the daily chart, we can see that GBPUSD has been consolidating around the 1.26 handle as the market awaits key catalysts next week to push it in either direction. Today it’s the Good Friday holiday, so liquidity will be thinner, and we can expect mostly a rangebound price action until the US PCE release which will likely move the market.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

GBPUSD Technical Analysis
GBPUSD 4 hour

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price is now ranging between the 1.2580 support and the 1.2660 resistance. There’s not much do here other than “playing the range” by buying at support and selling at resistance. The buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the 1.28 resistance, while the sellers will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in more aggressively for a drop into the 1.25 handle.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

GBPUSD Technical Analysis
GBPUSD 1 hour

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more closely the rangebound price action between the key levels with the 1.2612 level acting as kind of barometer for the sentiment with the market being more bullish above the level and more bearish below it.

Upcoming Events

Today we conclude the week with the US PCE and Fed Chair Powell.