The price of gold this week has seen a decline of -1.4% or $-28.42 at current levels of $1982.58. Although lower, it was even lower this week. Today's price is up $25 or 1.28%. A lower dollar and interest rates in the US have helped to spur a short-covering rebound.
Looking at the hourly chart, the price decline seen yesterday saw the pair move below swing lows going back to April 19 through April 28 between $1968.80 and $1975.70. The low price reached $1951.50 before rebounding to an intraday high today against the low of the swing area. It wasn't until the Fed chair commented that the lower bank lending was likely to lead to a lower terminal rate, along with the breakdown of debt ceiling talks in Washington, that yields moved lower, the dollar moved lower and gold moved higher.
However, the run to the upside fell short of the falling 100-hour moving average (blue line in the chart above) that moving average currently comes in at $1985.19 (and moving lower). The high price today has reached $1984.16. A move above the 100-hour moving average is needed to increase the bullish bias and give the buyers some added comfort and control.
Conversely, on the downside, the close risk is once again the swing area between $1968.80 and $1975.70 (see red numbered circles and yellow area). Moving below that level would increase the sellers advantage and would disappoint the buyers today. .
