Fundamental Overview
Nothing has changed in terms of the fundamentals this week. In fact, gold continues to consolidate around the major trendline and the 2600 support as the market awaits the US CPI report next week before picking a direction.
In the bigger picture, the trend remains bullish amid the Fed’s easing cycle, but the short-term corrections will likely be triggered by the repricing in rate cuts expectations. For now, the market looks fine with three rate cuts by the end of 2025 as the pricing remained unchanged despite lots of strong US data.
Therefore, the next big event for Gold will be the US CPI report. Higher than expected figures will likely trigger another selloff, while lower than expected data should keep the precious metal supported into new highs.
Overall, we shouldn’t expect the same strong uptrend in gold going forward as we got used to in the past couple of years as the conditions changed across the board.
In fact, the geopolitical risk premium should ease with the Trump’s administration. Real yields might either continue to fall slowly or just range for an extended period of time. Last but not least, the new Treasury Secretary should reduce fears around the US fiscal profligacy.
Gold Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that gold continues to consolidate around the major trendline. This is where the buyers keep on stepping in to position for a rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will need the price to break below the trendline and the 2600 support to gain control and target a drop into the next major trendline around the 2400 level.
Gold Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price is stuck in a range between the 2660 and 2620 levels. The market participants will likely keep on playing the range until we get a breakout on either side. On the downside though, we might get a fakeout if the 2600 support holds and the price rallies from there.
Gold Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, there’s not much else we can add here as the choppy price action will likely continue until we get a strong catalyst with the US NFP tomorrow and the US CPI next week in focus. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming Catalysts
Today, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while tomorrow we conclude the week with the US NFP report.
