In the past two weeks, Gold has been completely ignoring the rise in real yields and the US Dollar as the events in the Middle East remained the sole focus. In fact, every surge in prices was caused by a key development in the Israel-Hamas war. The latest rally into the weekend was caused by a report from ABC news where it was said that the Israeli military got the “green light” to move into Gaza whenever it was ready. Today, Gold opened with a downside gap as we haven’t seen any ground offence over the weekend, but the risks are still very high.
Gold Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that Gold spiked above the key resistance around the 1985 level but eventually got rejected and finished the week below the resistance. This candlestick formation is called “shooting star” and it’s generally a reversal pattern. We can also see that the price got overstretched as depicted by the distance from the blue 8 moving average. In such instances, we can usually see a pullback into the moving average or some consolidation before the next move. We can also notice that the moving average sits right at a support zone, which makes it a very good target for a pullback.
Gold Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that right around the support zone at 1950 we can find the confluence with the trendline, the red 21 moving average and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. This is where the buyers should step in with a defined risk below the trendline and target new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to position for a bigger fall into the support around the 1890 level.
Gold Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price has been diverging with the MACD right into the key resistance level. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, it adds another layer of confluence for a pullback into the trendline and in case of a break lower, a reversal into the 1890 support.
Upcoming Events
Tomorrow, we will get the US PMIs and Gold might continue to be supported in case the data misses expectations. On Thursday, we will see the US Jobless Claims data with Continuing Claims recently showing some softness in the labour market. Finally, on Friday, we will get the US PCE report, which is not expected to change anything for the Fed at this time.
