Fundamental Overview
This week has been pretty boring all around as the lack of catalysts kept the price action confined in a tight range. The market is waiting for the key economic releases next week as we will get the ISM PMIs and lots of US labour market data including the NFP report.
As a reminder, the Fed is now very focused on the labour market as Fed Chair Powell said that they will not welcome any more weakness and will do everything they can to keep it strong. Therefore, the data will decide whether the central bank will go with a standard 25 bps cut in September or take a more aggressive approach with a 50 bps cut.
Gold Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that gold is struggling to break above the 2531 resistance as the lack of catalysts this week kept the market at bay. Nonetheless, the buyers remain in control for now and they will keep targeting new all-time highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price falling back below the 2480 level to turn the bias more bearish and position for a drop into the 2360 level.
Gold Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price broke below the trendline that was defining the bullish momentum on this timeframe. This is just another signal of a loss in momentum and general consolidation.
We are now stuck in a range between the 2480 support and the 2531 resistance. The buyers will want to go long around the support or wait for a break above the resistance. The sellers, on the other hand, will look to go short around the resistance or wait for a break below the support.
Gold Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see more clearly the rangebound price action. The red lines define the average daily range for today so we shouldn’t expect any breakout today unless the US jobless claims surprise with a big spike above the 260K level.
Upcoming Catalysts
Today we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while tomorrow we conclude the week with the US PCE report.
