Fundamental Overview
Gold yesterday rallied into a new all-time high following the US data release. Seems like the market focused more on the miss in the US job openings rather than the strong beat in the US consumer confidence report, which is more forward-looking.
In the bigger picture, gold remains in a bullish trend as real yields will likely continue to fall amid the Fed’s easing cycle. The pullbacks will likely be triggered by a repricing in rate cuts expectations but unless the Fed’s reaction function changes, the uptrend should remain intact.
Next week, we have the US election and that is going to be a huge catalyst for gold. In fact, a Trump victory, and more specifically a Republican sweep, will likely raise real yields on higher growth and less rate cuts expectations and trigger a strong selloff.
Gold Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that gold managed to rally into a new all-time high yesterday following the US data release. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the major trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to start targeting new lows.
Gold Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have now another minor trendline defining the current bullish momentum. The buyers will likely lean on it to position for new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to target a pullback into the major trendline.
Gold Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see the break of the all-time high yesterday and the rally into the 2790 level as the bullish momentum increased. There’s not much to add here although the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the previous all-time high level. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming Catalysts
Today we get the US ADP and the US GDP. Tomorrow, we have the US PCE, the US Jobless Claims and the US Employment Cost Index. Finally, on Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI.
