EUR/USD Technical Analysis
On Monday, the pair stalled at the 1.0870 area (100-hour MA and 200-day MA convergence), initiating the current downtrend. This convergence increased the falling 100-hour MA's importance going forward.
Yesterday, the EUR/USD extended its decline, breaking below the 1.07767 level (August 1 low). This move triggered a further decline to 1.07605, but the pair failed to sustain momentum toward the next target zone of 1.0719-34. Instead, it reversed higher.
Today's Price Action
Sellers reattempted to break below 1.07767 but were rejected at 1.07695. The pair has since rebounded, approaching last week's swing low at 1.0810 (intraday high: 1.08075).
Key Levels to Watch:
Immediate resistance: 1.08106 (last week's low)
Critical resistance: 1.08165 (falling 100-hour Moving Average)
Longer-term resistance: 1.0870 ( 200-day MA convergence/broken 61.8% retracement)
Market Implications
Buyers are attempting to regain control after sellers failed to maintain momentum. To achieve this, they must reclaim:
- 1.08106 (last week's low)
2. 1.08165 (falling 100-hour MA)
A successful break above these levels would boost buyer confidence and potentially shift short-term control.
USDJPY
The USD/JPY emerged as the strongest major pair against the USD yesterday, following its breakout above:
100-day Moving Average (MA) at 150.66 (Tuesday)
200-day MA at 151.388 (Wednesday)
The pair surpassed the swing resistance near 151.92, reaching a high of 153.18. Although shy of the 61.8% target at 153.397, this level is considered relatively close given the USD/JPY's 160-pip average range.
Current Market Dynamics
Today, as the USD weakens, the USD/JPY has retreated toward:
Swing area support at 151.92
A move below would target the 200-day MA support at 151.389
Key Takeaways
The 200-day MA will be crucial support today and in the near term.
Holding above this level is essential for maintaining upside momentum.
GBPUSD
Yesterday, the GBP/USD extended its downtrend, breaking away from the 100-day Moving Average (MA) at 1.2965. The decline surpassed earlier weekly lows and the 1.2938 target, reaching a low of 1.2906.
Today, the pair has rebounded, reclaiming ground above the 100-day MA (1.2965). Currently trading at 1.2976, with an intraday high of 1.29808.
Key Levels to Watch:
Next upside target: September 11 low at 1.3000
Break above 1.3000 should trigger further upside momentum
Sellers failed to sustain momentum below the 100-day MA; buyers now have the short-term advantage. Can they keep it?
