The major US stock indices are opening with declines as strong retail sales keeps the Fed on track for more tightening.

The good news is the economy remain strong which is good for future growth/earnings. The bad is that growth may be inflationary which could lead to a much tighter Fed, which could sap strength from the economy, and ultimately lead to a recession.

The continued tumble in the spread between two and 10 year yields to -91 basis points at its low today, is indicative of concerns about a hard landing down the road. However, in the short term there is no recession in the site. Extraordinary times.

Yields
The 2-10 year spread declines to a new cycle low

They snapped out of the stock market 14 minutes into the U.S. open is showing:

Looking at the US debt market:

  • two year yield 4.607%, -1.5 basis points
  • five year yield 4.001%, -0.2 basis points
  • 10 year yield 3.762% +0.2 basis points
  • 30 year yield 3.799%, unchanged

The USD is the strongest of the major currencies. The AUD is the weakest. Ironically, the cumulative gains of the USD and the cumulative declines of the AUDUSD perfectly mirror each other at 6.16%.

forex
The strongest to the weakest of the major currencies