Fundamental Overview
The Nasdaq has been consolidating around the all-time high as the lack of catalysts and the pressure from rising Treasury yields kept the market at bay.
We are now near the US elections and it’s going to be a major event for the market. A Trump victory will likely give the stock market a boost on better growth expectations, while a Harris triumph could be more bearish.
Treasury yields and the stock market often move in the same direction as long as the move is led by growth expectations. So, the data, the elections result and the Fed's reaction function will be key for the market in the next six months.
Nasdaq Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq is consolidating around the highs. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to start targeting the next major trendline.
Nasdaq Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the recent rangebound price action with the 20265 level acting as support. If the price gets there, we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the level to position for a rally into a new high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in for a drop into the trendline around the 19800 level.
Nasdaq Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here. It’s unlikely that we’ll get a breakout today given the lack of catalysts. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming Catalysts
Tomorrow we get the US Flash PMIs and the US Jobless Claims figures.
