Fundamental Overview
The Nasdaq finally erased the entire drop from the last ISM Manufacturing PMI as the market faded the “growth scare”. The first catalyst was the good US Jobless Claims on the 8th of August as that quelled the fears on a deteriorating labour market triggered by the weak NFP report.
Last week, we got even better Jobless Claims figures and a great Retail Sales report which increased the bullish momentum. The market’s focus is now clearly on growth. This week, we will have two key events.
The first will be on Thursday as we will get the release of the US Flash PMIs for August and that will be kind of a test for the thesis that the July data was negatively affected by Hurricane Beryl. The second one will be Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium where he will likely pre-commit to a rate cut in September.
Nasdaq Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq broke above the key trendline and extended the gains into the key 19712 level. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the level to position for a drop into the major trendline around the 18000 level. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into new highs.
Nasdaq Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we an upward trendline defining the current bullish momentum. If we were to get a bigger pullback, the buyers will likely lean on the trendline where they will also find the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 18000 level.
Nasdaq Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a steeper minor upward trendline that’s been acting as support for the buyers as they kept on leaning on it to push into higher highs. This is where we will likely see them stepping in again with a defined risk below the last higher low at 19445 to position for a break above the key resistance.
The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking below the trendline and the 19445 level to increase the bearish bets into the other trendline around the 19000 level. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming Catalysts
Today we have Fed’s Waller speaking. On Thursday we get the US Jobless Claims figures and the US PMIs. On Friday we conclude with Fed Chair Powell speaking at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
