The NASDAQ index last week moved above a ceiling area going back to February between 12245 and 12269. On Friday however, the price moved back below that ceiling and closed below it. The threat technically was to the downside after the failed break.
However, the low price today could only reach 12263 - within the swing area - and the price has since moved up to a new high at 12346.03. The next target comes against the high from last week at 12364.65. Move above that level and the price will be trading at the highest level since August 26, 2022. The door opens further for further upside momentum.
Risk in the short-term remains a swing area down to 12245. If the price can stay above that level, the buyers remain in firm control. Conversely, if the price moves below then another failure will likely weigh on the buyers.
On a break below 12245 on the downside, the rising 100-hour moving average comes in at 12142.37 (blue line in the chart above) followed by the 200-hour moving average at 12107.93. Both of those moving averages would be targeted with moves below, increasing the seller's bias advantage at least in the short term.
Taking a broader look at the daily chart below, a move to new highs going forward would have traders targeting the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the November 2021 all-time high. That level comes in at 12427.97.
If the buyers are to be treated seriously, getting above the 38.2% retracement is the minimum retracement target for buyers to gain the "markets" respect. Absent that, the correction is just a normal plain vanilla variety. The sellers remain in control in the longer term.
