The USDCAD is trading to a new high, and in the process peeked above a swing area between 1.3434 and 1.3445. The swing area goes back to early January. The price of the pair has been above and below the area since then (see red numbered circles), but mostly below the area.
ON Monday and Tuesday, the price of the pair extended above the level only to find sellers near the 50% midpoint of the 2023 range at 1.34729. That level would be the next key target on more upside momentum. With three separate breaks to the upside and the price stalling at the 50%, the level is gaining in importance.
On the downside, the pair moved lower in the Asian session today and stalled at the 200 hour MA (green line). The price bounced off that level as it did no Friday last week, before running higher.
The Bank of Canada announced last week that would conditionally pause rate hikes and Macklem said yesterday that if the projections go as planned, the BOC would not need to hike again. One "condition" will be the employment report which will be released on Friday. The expectations are for a move back down to 15K vs the surge last month of104K. The unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 5.1% vs 5.0% last.
