NZDUSD falls between 100 and 200 day MA and near the 100/200 hour MAs

The NZDUSD NZD/USD Understanding NZD/USD: A Comprehensive GuideThe NZD/USD is a commonly offered currency pair representing the New Zealand dollar or Kiwi and US dollar. The pair is popular for exposure to a commodity currency, i.e. the NZD, which helps capture the risk appetite of forex traders. Like its Antipodean counterpart, the Australian Dollar, the NZD/USD is seen as a carry trade, due in part to interest rate differentials which favor the NZD. The NZD is the world’s seventh most liquid pair at the time of Understanding NZD/USD: A Comprehensive GuideThe NZD/USD is a commonly offered currency pair representing the New Zealand dollar or Kiwi and US dollar. The pair is popular for exposure to a commodity currency, i.e. the NZD, which helps capture the risk appetite of forex traders. Like its Antipodean counterpart, the Australian Dollar, the NZD/USD is seen as a carry trade, due in part to interest rate differentials which favor the NZD. The NZD is the world’s seventh most liquid pair at the time of Read this Term low this week was on Monday at 0.61299. That represents the low cycle extreme (lowest since November, 2022).

The high this week was on Wednesday at 0.62748. The midpoint is at 0.6203. The current price is just above that at 0.6206 just above the midpoint level.

Technically, on Friday of last wee, the price fell below the near converged 100 and 200 day MAs near 0.6184. Those moving averages crossed with the 100 day MA going higher and the 200 day MA going lower.

The current price at 0.6806 is trading between those daily moving averages. The 200 day moving averages at 0.61759. The 100 day moving averages at 0.62164.

Also in play is the now converged 100 and 200 hour moving averages which are currently at 0.6207. Those moving averages are near the midpoint for the week.

So overall, technically the price is in a neutral area. Not only is the price between the relatively close 100 day moving average above, and the 200 day moving average below, but the 100 and 200 hour moving averages and the current price is within a few pips of each other.

What that says to me is the market is waiting for the next shove.

Of course next week we have key employment data in the US on Friday. ON Wednesday and Thursday we start to get the ADP, JOLTS and the Challenger jobs data.

The ISM non manufacturing employment component saw a move higher today and is back comfortably above the 50 level at 54.1 vs 50.0 last month.

The manufacturing ISM employment component saw a dip and moved back below the 50 level at 49.1 vs 50.6 last month.

The initial jobless claims Jobless Claims Jobless claims are a weekly statistic reported in the United States that represents a key barometer for domestic employment. As one of the most closely watched US indicators, jobless claims carry a lot of weight in financial markets, namely forex and the stock market.Jobless claims are reported on a weekly basis by the Department of Labor. While painting a picture of the overall health of the economy, jobless claims can be broken down into two types.This includes initial jobless claims or person Jobless claims are a weekly statistic reported in the United States that represents a key barometer for domestic employment. As one of the most closely watched US indicators, jobless claims carry a lot of weight in financial markets, namely forex and the stock market.Jobless claims are reported on a weekly basis by the Department of Labor. While painting a picture of the overall health of the economy, jobless claims can be broken down into two types.This includes initial jobless claims or person Read this Term data this week stayed below the 200K level for the 7th consecutive week, suggesting employment remains strong (higher US dollar).

All that suggests that the odds on favorite is for another solid report after the "overly solid" 517K rise in Non Farm Payroll jobs last month.

Another key event next week will be the Fed Chair Powell's testimony on Tuesday at 10 AM ET (and also on Wednesday). Will Powell keep to the storyline that the terminal rate is near? Will he up the ante and look for something more?

The basic storyline plan is to get the terminal rate to 5.25% to 5.5% and then wait to see impact of the rate hikes. Waller suggested yesterday that if the data remains hot, that terminal rate could go higher (toward 6%?).

Helping that "stay to the storyline" argument is that the "market" is doing the tightening for the Fed. The 10 year moved to 4.00% this week. The average rate on the 30 year fixed mortgage jumped to 7% this week after approaching 6% in January. That - along with higher credit card and auto loan rates - should help to put some slow in growth and helps the Fed. A softer stock market is also a help to put the slow into the economy (and hopefully inflation).

What about in New Zealand next week? In NZ there is no major data due.

So most of the focus will be on the US. The jobs should be strong (support the dollar), but the Fed is still sitting on the fence and the Powell testimony will be a key barometer that could lead to the next shove in pairs like the NZDUSD.