The NZDUSD is trading within a value area with a high value area between 0.5985 – 96 on the top side, and 0.5879 – 94 on the downside. Yes, there have been extensions to the upside and downside over the last 7 weeks of trading, but most of the price action is between the aforementioned extremes (see red box on the chart below).
On Friday, the price extended outside the upper extreme reaching all the way up to 0.6050 before reversing lower and closing back within the value area. In trading today, after a brief move to the upside, buyers turned the sellers and pushed the price lower. In doing so, the price is approaching the rising 100/200 bar moving averages (and near converged) at the 0.5934 area.
Those moving averages will be the barometer for price action going forward. Staying above keeps the buyers in control despite the fall lower today.
Conversely, moving below and I would expect the dip buyers against those moving averages to turn into sellers.
