Just yesterday, the NZDUSD experienced a strong upward movement, finding support at the swing area near 0.6200 and breaking above the 100-hour moving average (blue line), 200-hour moving average (green line), and the 50% midpoint of the decline from last week's high to this week's low at 0.62787. This upward run reached its peak with the break of the 100-day moving average and the 61.8% retracement at 0.63018 on the hourly chart. The highest price reached 0.63139 before reversing and closing below the 100-day moving average.
During the Asian session, the price fluctuated, with the high price stalling near yesterday's high. This might have signaled the end of the upward momentum. Although the price briefly moved above the 100-day moving average following the US retail sales data release, it quickly shifted downward over the next three hours. In the process, key levels from yesterday were breached, this time on the downside. The 50% retracement at 0.62787, the 200-hour moving average at 0.62557 (green line), and more recently the 100-hour moving average at 0.62321 (blue line) were all broken. The low price reached 0.6213, approaching yesterday's lows and the swing area between 0.6201-0.62108.
What lies ahead?
The breach of the hourly moving averages prompted buyers to turn sellers, who are regaining control. As a result, the 100-hour moving average at 0.6232 now serves as close resistance. Remaining below this level suggests a more bearish outlook. On the downside, if the price falls below the 0.6200 level, a complete retracement of this week's trading range cannot be ruled out, with the week's low on Wednesday at 0.6181. A low around this price was also observed on March 28, further highlighting the level's importance.
Conversely, it would take a move back above the 100 hour moving average to hurt the bearish bias in the short term. If re-broken, the 200 hour moving average and 38.2% retracement at 0.62557 would be targeted
