On the daily chart below for NZDUSD, we can see that after the Silicon Valley Bank failed, the US Dollar lost ground pretty fast as the market repriced lower future interest rates expectations. After a couple of days though as the Fed enacted emergency actions to backstop the crisis and calm the markets, the pair started to range.

NZDUSD technical analysis

The price has been just bouncing between the support at 0.6191 and the resistance at 0.6270. The moving averages crossed to the upside, which may be a bad omen for the sellers, but the MAs can give false signals in a rangebound price action. The market is just waiting for more data to decide where to go next.

On the 4 hour chart below, we can see more closely the range created after the Silicon Valley Bank collapse. Even a less hawkish FOMC decision couldn’t make the market to break above the resistance as the price just melted in the following days.

The market is still uncertain on the future and, even though it prices rate cuts coming soon due to recent events in the banking sector, the economic reports after the events have all been hot. So, there’s no sign that the crisis slowed the economy yet. This is why the market will look at the next data carefully, beginning with US Jobless Claims tomorrow.

On the 1 hour chart below, we can see that the price has been rejected by the resistance again. The price broke the trendline and we may see another fall to the support level soon. The hourly moving averages have been quite reliable in this environment as we can see in the chart.

So, if they cross to the downside again, we may have the confirmation that the price is going all the way down to the support. For tomorrow, it’s likely that we will see USD strength if the data beats expectations and USD weakness in case it misses.