Fundamental Overview
The USD last week finished slightly positive but overall, it was a pretty flat week. We got some great US PMIs on Friday which showed growth without inflationary pressures. In fact, despite the strong PMIs the market pricing for interest rates remained unchanged. That should be generally positive for risk sentiment going forward.
The NZD, on the other hand, got pressured mainly because of the bouts of risk-off flows here and there. The mood in the market seems to be gradually improving though and that should support the Kiwi going forward.
NZDUSD Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that NZDUSD bounced and consolidated near the key support around the 0.6082 level where we have also the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence.
The buyers continue to step in around the lows to position for a rally back into the 0.6217 resistance. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish momentum and position for a drop into the 0.60 handle next.
NZDUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price action has been mostly rangebound between the 0.6082 support and the 0.6217 resistance. These will be the key levels that the market will need to break to start a more sustained trend. For now, we could keep bouncing around as the market participants continue to “play the range”.
NZDUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a strong resistance zone around the 0.6145 level where the price got rejected from several times. The buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to gain more conviction and increase the bullish bets into the 0.6217 level.
The sellers, on the other hand, will likely keep on leaning on that resistance to position for a drop back into the 0.6082 support targeting a break below it. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming Catalysts
Today we have the US Consumer Confidence report where the market will be focused on the labour market details. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the US PCE.
