On the daily chart below for the S&P 500, we can see that the market just can’t break above the key resistance at 4175 as every time the price reaches that level it gets rejected. The moving averages are still crossed to the upside and the buyers will keep on leaning on them but watch out for the break below the trendline as that may be an early sign of a change in trend.

The issue here is that the soft-landing narrative has many flows as economic data Economic Data Economic data typically comes in the form of news releases that are disseminated daily. This information is extremely valuable to retail and institutional forex traders, given the influence such data has on currency rates.Most of the major economic events that are released are reported by sovereign governments throughout the globe. Moreover, there are several economic data points that are released by private organizations that can also move the market.By and large, when new information becomes a Economic data typically comes in the form of news releases that are disseminated daily. This information is extremely valuable to retail and institutional forex traders, given the influence such data has on currency rates.Most of the major economic events that are released are reported by sovereign governments throughout the globe. Moreover, there are several economic data points that are released by private organizations that can also move the market.By and large, when new information becomes a Read this Term keeps pointing to a recession and recent jobless claims started to trend higher possibly signalling the bottom in the unemployment rate. If the labour market doesn’t deteriorate enough, inflation will remain above target and the Fed will be forced to hike even more and, in the end, causing a worse hard landing. So, the odds are in favour of the hard landing crowd.

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

In the 4 hour chart below, we can see that the recent rally towards the key resistance has been diverging with the MACD as the momentum was weak amid misses in US Retail Sales and Jobless Claims. Today we will see again another US Jobless Claims report and tomorrow the US PMIs.

It’s likely that the sellers will pile in aggressively in case the data deteriorates further, while the buyers will still be a bit cautious in case the data beats as there’s always the possibility that inflation remains above target for too long and forces the Fed to raise rates above the projected level.

In the 1 hour chart below, we can see the range created around the key resistance. This is the spot to watch in conjunction with the economic data. If we see misses and the price breaks below the range, then the sellers should pile in and target the support at 4100. On the other hand, if the data beats and the price breaks above the range, then the buyers may jump onboard and push the price to new highs with the 4300 level as the ultimate target.