S&P index threatens to close below the 200 day MA

The S&P index is threatening to close below the 200 day moving average for the first time since January 19. The 200 day moving average comes in at 3940.28. Last Friday, the price tested that moving average and found willing buyers. Today as we head into the close, the price is moving toward it and threatens to break it.

If broken it would be a negative from a technical perspective. However there are other technical levels in play that, soon thereafter then could also install the fall:

• The 38.2% retracement of the move up from the October low comes in at 3926.93
• The 100 day moving average Moving average A moving average is a statistical tool that is used to smooth out short-term fluctuations in data and reveal longer-term trends. It is calculated by taking the average of a certain number of data points over a specific period of time, and then plotting that average as a line on a chart. The most common types of moving averages are simple moving averages (SMA) and exponential moving averages (EMA).In financial markets, moving averages are often used to analyze stock prices, exchange rates, and ot A moving average is a statistical tool that is used to smooth out short-term fluctuations in data and reveal longer-term trends. It is calculated by taking the average of a certain number of data points over a specific period of time, and then plotting that average as a line on a chart. The most common types of moving averages are simple moving averages (SMA) and exponential moving averages (EMA).In financial markets, moving averages are often used to analyze stock prices, exchange rates, and ot Read this Term comes in at 3920.93

Both would need to be broken to increase the bearish bias.

Of note that this week is that although it is the first Friday of the month, the US jobs report will not be released until Friday, March 10. Adam, wrote about that last week. The explanation:

The full answer is that Bureau of Labor Statistics releases non-farm payrolls Nonfarm Payrolls Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is the single biggest monthly economic news indicator released out of the United States, usually on the first Friday of every month. Reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the NFP measures the increase or decrease in the number of people employed during the previous month, except for those working in the farming and agriculture industry.The NFP can also be referred to as an Employment Change, and is the most anticipated monthly report. As it's released at the begin Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is the single biggest monthly economic news indicator released out of the United States, usually on the first Friday of every month. Reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the NFP measures the increase or decrease in the number of people employed during the previous month, except for those working in the farming and agriculture industry.The NFP can also be referred to as an Employment Change, and is the most anticipated monthly report. As it's released at the begin Read this Term on the fourth Friday following the week containing the 12th of a given month, which in March's case will be the 10th of the month. So because February 10th also fell on a Friday, that only leaves three Fridays in between, which is evidently not enough time to prepare the report.

So instead it falls on March 10.

For the stock market which often likes to position itself near technical levels before key events – and let the event dictate the next bias shift - there is a lot of time between now and March 10. That may lead to ups and downs around that cluster of technical levels. Be aware.