Stocks are looking good (jinx).
Just when you thought the major indices were setting up for a tumble lower, a regional Fed president (Bostic) comes in and says something less hawkish than the rest (Waller, Mester, Kashkari), and its risk-on all the sudden.
Technically, the major indices have also dug themselves out of bearish holes.
- For the Dow Industrial Average, it moved into negative territory for the year last week, and also moved below its 100 day moving average (blue line in the chart below). The low price on Wednesday traded to the lowest level since November 9 and was looking toward its 200 day moving average at 32368.22 before bouncing higher yesterday to retest its 100 day moving average. Today the price has moved back above the 100 day moving average at 33089.60, and also back into positive territory for the year (above 33147.26). The index is up 280 points or 0.85%. Phew.
- For the S&P index, it moved below its 200 day moving average yesterday (green line in the chart below). That moving average comes in at 3940.22. It also approached its 100 day moving average (blue line in the chart below) at 3927.30. Before reaching the 100 day moving average, sellers turned to buyers (held by Bostic's comments), and moved back above the 200 day moving average yesterday. The price is continuing to extend even higher today and in the process is breaking back above the key 4000 level as well. The index is up 54 points or 1.35%. Phew!
- For the NASDAQ index, it fell and closed below its 200 day moving average (green line in the chart below) on Wednesday (currently at 11403.69), and moved even lower yesterday as it approached the 50% midpoint of the move up from the October low. However, Bostic's comments pushed the price back above the 200 day moving average, and today that momentum is continuing to the upside. The current price is up 183 point or 1.60%. Phew!
Yes stocks are looking good again (or less bearish). The storyline could have been much worse if the market didn't focus on what that Bostic had to say. Waller and Kashkari were less supportive.
Chalk that up to a market that wanted to rally perhaps.
However, be aware, that the winds of change come and go. One day it will be Bostic they listen to. The next day it might be Waller or Mester.
PS On Tuesday and Wednesday of next week we will get the current view from the Fed chair Powell as he testifies on Capitol Hill. Be aware. Understand your levels that are in play.