The AUD is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest as the NA session begins. The USD is mostly lower with gains only vs the CHF.
Today, the ECB Meeting accounts said:
The European Central Bank (ECB) accounts reveal a consensus on the need for continued vigilance and patience, emphasizing a restrictive stance for some time to combat inflation. There's increased confidence among members that inflation will align with the 2% target by 2025, yet it's deemed premature to be confident that this goal has been fully achieved. Caution is advised as near-term inflation is likely to rise, and convincing evidence of a sustained turnaround in wages, which is necessary, is still lacking. Despite a fall in inflation, there is no room for complacency. Some members advocate for an earlier end to full reinvestments than proposed. The accounts also highlight that all three elements of the ECB's reaction function are moving in the right direction. The interest rates projected by the staff, higher than market rates, suggest that the current rate path should achieve the inflation target by the second half of 2025. The importance of restating the Governing Council’s data-dependent approach is acknowledged, and all members agree with the proposal made by Mr. Lane.
ECB members have been unified of late that the market is ahead of their skis on expectations for rate cuts but they do see decline in 2024.
Today in the US, the Atlanta Fed president Bostic is scheduled to speak. The US weekly employment claims will be released at 830 with expectations of 206K vs 202K last week. The market will also be focused on the Philly Fed manufacturing index (8:30 AM ET) especially after the sharp decline in the Empire State manufacturing index on Tuesday (-43.7 versus -4.9 estimate). The expectations are for a decline to -7.0 from -12.8 last month. US hasn't starts and building permits will also be released at 8:30 AM with building permits expected at 1.480 million versus 1.460 million. The housing starts are expected at 1.426 million versus 1.560 million last month.
The weekly oil inventory data is fully released at 11 AM.
- Crude oil stocks are expected to show a drawdown of -0.313 million versus +1.338 million last week.
- Distilates is expected to show a of 0.880 million versus a build over 6.528 million last week.
- Gasoline are expected to show a build up 2.150 million versus a build up 8.029 million last week.
The private inventory data released late yesterday showed builds across the board with gasoline and distilates showing oversized gains for the second consecutive week:
- Crude oil build up 0.483 million.
- Gasoline showed a build of 4.86 million, and
- Distilates showed a build of 5.210 million.
Crude oil futures are trading above and below unchanged on the day.
A snapshot of the markets as the North American session begins currently shows:
- Crude oil is trading unchanged at $72.56. At this time yesterday, the price was at $70.97
- Gold is trading up $10 or 0.50% at $2015.91. At this time yesterday, it was trading at $2027.08
- Silver is trading down up eight cents or 0.34% at $22.62. At this time yesterday, it was trading at $20.81
- Bitcoin traded at $42,424 at this time yesterday, the price was trading at $42,722
In the premarket for US stocks, the major indices are trading mixed. Gains today would snap a two day decline in the major indices:
- Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a decline of - 60 points. Yesterday, the index fell -94.45 points or -0.25% at 37266.68
- S&P futures are implying a gain of 20.04 points. Yesterday, the index fell -26.77 points or -0.56% at 4739.22
- Nasdaq futures are implying a gain of 155 points points. Yesterday, the index fell -88.72 points or -0.59% at 14855.62
In the European equity markets, the major indices are all trading lower:
- German DAX, +0.76%. Yesterday, the index fell -0.84%
- France CAC 1.00%. Yesterday, the index fell -1.07%
- UK FTSE 100 0.32% %. Yesterday, the index fell -1.48%
- Spain's Ibex 0.26%. Yesterday, the index fell -1.26%
- Italy's FTSE MIB 1.10% (delayed by 10 minutes).
Shares in the Asian Pacific markets were next
- Japan's Nikkei 225, -0.03%
- China's Shanghai composite index , +0.43%
- Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, +0.75%
- Australia S&P/ASX, -0.63%
Looking at the US debt market, yields are trading mixed with the shorter paint higher in the water and a lower.
- 2-year yield 4.329% -2.5 basis points. Yesterday at this time, the yield was at 4.282%
- 5-year yield 4.002% -2.2 basis points. Yesterday at this time, the yield was at 3.972%
- 10-year yield 4.090% -1.4 basis points. Yesterday at this time, the yield was at 4.071%
- 30-year yield 4.313% +0.1 basis points. Yesterday at this time, the yield was at 4.25%
- The 2-10 year spread is at -24.1 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -21.2 basis points
- The 2-30 year spread is at -1.7 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at +1.3 points
In the European debt market, the benchmark 10-year yields are mixed:
