The AUD is the strongest and the GBP is the weakest as the NA session begins. In Australia, the RBA raised rates by 0.25% to 3.35% and said:
- Board expects further increases in interest rates
- Board resolute in its determination to return inflation to target
- The central forecast is for CPI inflation to decline to 4¾ per cent this year and to around 3 per cent by mid-2025.
The target inflation band is 2% to 3%. Their expectations don't reach the high end of that bank until mid-2025. That sentiment helped to push the AUD pairs higher with the EURAUD and GBPAUD leading the way with gains of around 0.85%. The AUDUSD has moved in favor of the AUD by 0.62%. The increase was the ninth consecutive in row.
Today Fed Powell speaks (at 12:40 PM ET). Fed's Kashkari overnight had hawkish overtones although he has been tilted that way. He said he continued to see a terminal rate near 5.4% which is above the Fed's projections from the central tendencies report (at 5.10%). The Fed will next update that projection at their next policy meeting in mid-March.
Meanwhile the Fed Funds contract for July 2023 moves up toward that Fed current target near 5.10%. The market has been hesitant to believe the Fed, but with the US jobs report on Friday showing 517K new jobs in the month plus a +71K revision to prior months, the economy is not heading into a recession which increases inflation chance. More Kashkari:
- Services side of the economy is still very robust
- Hard to imagine strong jobs growth can occur with wage growth moderating
- We haven't done enough to bring the labour market into balance
Bank of Canada 's Macklem will speak at 12:45 PM ET. Bank of Canada raise rates by 25 basis points back on January 25 and said that they are entering a period of a "conditional pause."
Meanwhile stocks are mixed in early trading. US yields are mixed ith the shorter end marginally lower and the longer end up marginally. The US treasury will auction off 3 year notes today at 1 PM. They will auction 10 and 30 year issues on Wednesday and Thursday.
A snapshot of markets are showing:
- Spot gold is trading up $2.50 or 0.15% at $1869.75.
- Spot silver is trading down to cents or -0.05% at $22.22
- WTI crude oil is trading up at $75.11 after settling yesterday at $74.11. Saudi Arabia raise its official selling prices for export cargoes loading in March. That could be attributed to increase the Chinese demand
- The price bitcoin is marginally above the $23,000 level at $23,005
in the premarket for US stocks, the major indices are mixed
- Dow Industrial Average -50 points after yesterday's -34.99 point decline.
- S&P index is up one point after yesterday's -25.42 point decline
- NASDAQ index is up up 35 points after yesterday's -119.5 point decline
in the European equity markets, the major indices are mixed:
- German DAX -0.16%
- Francis CAC +0.03%
- UK's FTSE 100 +0.52%
- Spain's Ibex +0.3%
In the US debt market the short end is lower while the longer end is up marginally:
in the European neck we markets, the benchmark 10 year yields are also trading higher: