The AUD is the strongest of the major currencies and the JPY is the weakest as the NA session begins. The USD is mixed but mostly lower with most of the declines vs AUD, NZD and CAD. The USD is only stronger vs the JPY and the CHF to start the trading day.
The RBA will be announcing its latest interest rate decision this week. The Melbourne Institute today released their inflation gauge and it rose by 0.8% versus 0.1% last month. Two months ago the index increased by 0.9%. The central bank will announce its decision on Tuesday in Australia (12:30 AM ET on Tuesday).
Looking at the data released today, China PMI was mixed with manufacturing higher than expected (but still below 50.0 level), the nonmanufacturing was lower than expected (but still above 50.0). Germany import prices are lower which is good for inflation. The Flash CPI in Europe came in as expected for the headline. The core was higher however, and both are way above 2% target for the ECB. Below are the details of the overnight releases as North American traders start their day:
- JPY Preliminary Industrial Production m/m came in at 2.0%, below the expected 2.5% but improved from the prior figure of -2.2%.
- JPY Retail Sales y/y surpassed expectations, achieving 5.9% against an anticipated 5.4%, up from 5.8%.
- CNY Manufacturing PMI recorded a 49.3 result, which was higher than the 48.9 expectation but lower than the previous 49.0. Non-Manufacturing PMI posted a 51.5 outcome, lower than the expected 52.9 and prior 53.2.
- JPY Consumer Confidence was 37.1, better than the expected 36.1 and previous 36.2.
- JPY Housing Starts y/y reported a larger decrease than expected at -4.8%, compared to the -0.4% forecasted and the prior increase of 3.5%.
- EUR German Import Prices m/m recorded a steeper decline of -1.6% against the expected -0.8%, and worse than the prior -1.4%.
- EUR German Retail Sales m/m were also lower than expected at -0.8% versus -0.3% predicted, down from the previous 1.9%.
- GBP Mortgage Approvals exceeded expectations, coming in at 55K versus the expected 49K and previous 51K.
- GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m reported at 1.8B, better than the expected 1.3B and prior 1.0B.
- EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y met expectations at 5.3%, slightly down from the prior 5.5%.EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y was 5.5%, higher than the expected 5.4%, and matching the previous 5.5%
- EUR Prelim Flash GDP q/q was 0.3%, better than the expected 0.2% and a turnaround from the prior -0.1%.
Oil is trading higher and on pace for the best month in over a year. Yields in the US are marginally lower to start the US session.
US stocks are marginally higher in premarket trading. The earnings calendar is slow today, but will kick in on Tuesday. The most important to report this week will be Amazon and Apple, with both releasing this Thursday. According to Refinitiv, 78.7% of the earnings announced this quarter have surpassed analysts' expectations.
Tuesday, August 1
- Uber
- Pfizer
- Caterpillar
- Merck
- Altria
- AMD
- Starbucks
Wednesday, August 2
- CVS
- Humana
- Kraft Heinz
- PayPal
- Shopify
- Qualcomm
- Unity
Thursday, August 3
- Warner Bros. Discovery
- ConocoPhillips
- Expedia
- Moderna
- Amazon
- Apple
- Coinbase
- Airbnb
- Draft King's
A snapshot of the markets as the NA session gets underway shows:
- Crude oil is trading down up $0.74 or 0.92% $81.32. The price of crude oil is up 15.12% which is the largest increase since January 2022
- Spot gold is trading down $-1.18 or -0.06% at $1957.90
- Silver is trading up one cent or 0.05% or $24.34
- Bitcoin is trading $29,397
In the premarket for US stocks, the major indices are trading higher after solid gains on Friday. As the month comes to a close the major indices are all higher led by the NASDAQ index which is up by 3.83%. The S&P index is up 2.96% and the Dow industrial average is up 3.06%
- Dow Industrial Average is trading up 47 points after rebounding by 176.57 points on Friday. The Dow ended a 13 day up streak on Thursday.
- S&P index is trading up 6.5 points after rising by 44.84 points on Friday
- NASDAQ index is trading up 23.82 points after surging by 266.55 points on Friday
In the European equity markets, the major Indices are mostly higher
- German DAX, up 0.20%. For the month is up 2.18%
- France's CAC, up 0.51%. For the month the index is up 1.52%
- UK's FTSE 100, up 0.01%. For the month the index up 2.16%
- Spain's Ibex, down -0.17%. For the month the index is up 0.72%
- Italy's FTSE MIB, up +0.56% (delayed).
In the Asian Pacific market today, markets closed mixed:
- Japan’s Nikkei 225, up 1.26%
- China’s Shanghai Composite, up 0.46%
- Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, up 0.82%
- Australia’s S&P/ASX 200, up 0.09%
In the US debt market, yields are lower reversing most of the gains from yesterday
- 2-year yield, 4.878% -1.8 basis points
- 5-year yield, 4.187% -0.7 basis points
- 10-year yield, 3.964% -0.4 basis points
- 30-year yield, 4.021% -0.8 basis points
In the European debt market, benchmark 10-year yields are marginally changed on the day:
