The biggest mover today is the NZDJPY. It is currently down about 1.2% on the day. The NZD is lower vs all the major currencies today on risk off. The PM Ardern also resigned (effective February 7th) ahead of the elections. She is out of gas as the party leader.
The move lower today continues the decline started yesterday after the pair first raced higher on the back of the BOJ keeping policy steady.
Looking at the hourly chart above, that run to the upside raced up to recent swing highs and also the 200 and 100 day MAs at 84.60 and 84.80.The high price reached 84.794. Buyers turn to sellers in all the JPY pairs, and by the end of the day, the price had moved back below the 200 hour moving average currently at 0.83029 (green smooth line).
In trading today, the momentum to the downside continued, and then accelerated after breaking below the 100 hour moving average at 82.403 (blue smooth line in the chart above). The sellers remain in full control below the 100 hour moving average.
The low price today reached in the European/US trading sessions has reached 81.81 which is near the low price from Tuesday's trade. A break below that level, and traders would start to target the bottoms from January 3 and January 13. Those low levels came just above the 81.00 natural support (lows were at 81.03 – 81.08).
Overall, although the sellers have the NZDJPY as the biggest mover today, the pair is not without its ups and downs. Since December 28, there have been near symmetrical moves down and up and down and up. We are currently in the down cycle. The price is within 80 or so pips of the floor target.
Ultimately, the price will break out of the range, but for the time being traders in the pair are enjoying the five-or-so-day swings up and down.
