As the North American session gets underway, the CHF is the strongest, the NZD is the weakest. The USD is in the middle of the ranked table but all the major currencies are scrunched together.
Looking at the % changes of the major currencies vs the USD the biggest change is 0.10% (vs GBP and the AUD). The changes vs the JPY and CAD are only 0.02% (virtually unchanged in the morning snapshot). Trading ranges vs the USD are also very limited with the AUDUSD (29 pips), USDCHF (29 pips), GBPUSD (27 pips), EURUSD (24 pips), USDCAD (21 pips) and NZDUSD (21 pips) all under 30 pips. The market is confined. US stocks and US yields are also trading little changed as the North American session begins.
IN Australia, the RBA meeting minutes were released.
Key Points:
Rate Decision: The RBA considered raising interest rates but ultimately decided that maintaining the current rate was the stronger option. Future changes in the cash rate remain uncertain.
Inflation Concerns: There are increased risks of inflation staying above target longer than desired. The Board has limited tolerance for inflation not returning to target until after 2026.
Forecasts: The staff's forecasts were deemed credible, suggesting a path back to target inflation. These forecasts assume a higher cash rate path, and a rate increase may be necessary if the forecasts are too optimistic.
Inflation Expectations: Expectations for inflation are well-anchored, allowing the Board to overlook short-term variations to avoid excessive fine-tuning.
Economic Conditions: The labor market is tighter than expected, while consumer demand is weaker. Financial conditions in Australia are considered restrictive.
Global Outlook: Risks to global growth are more balanced, with an improved outlook for the US and China.
With the limited action today, traders are waiting for the next shove, but will be hard-pressed to find something on the economic calendar in the US today as it is bare with only oil inventory data due at the end of the day. Now there are more Fedspeak with:
- Fed Gov. Waller speech at 9 AM
- Richmond Fed Pres Barkin was like 9 AM
- NY Fed Pres. Williams sees at 9:05 AM
- Atlanta Fed Pres. Bostic speaks at 9:10 AM
- Fed Gov. Barr speaks at 11:45 AM
The Bank of England's Bailey will also speaks today. He will be speaking at the London school of economics starting at 1 PM ET
Maybe the speakers will give the market the shove needed.
In Canada today, the CPI data will be released at 8:30 AM ET with expectations of 0.6% versus 0.6% last month. The YoY measure is expected to decline to 2.7% from 2.9%.
A snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins shows
- Crude oil is trading down $1.34 or -1.69% at $77.96. At this time yesterday, the price was at $79.35
- Gold is trading down $2.21 or -0.09% at $2422.82.. At this time yesterday, the price was higher at $2424.
- Silver is trading down two cents or -0.04% at $31.79. On yesterday the price surged to the highest level since 2012.At this time Friday, the price was at $31.24
- Bitcoin currently trades at $71,125 after yesterday's run up yesterday which saw the price extend to a high of $71,500. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $67,063
In the premarket, the major indices are higher. The markets are highly anticipating Nvidia's earnings which will released after the close on Wednesday. Shares of Nvidia are trading up 0.5% in premarket trading after rising 2.49% yesterday and closing just below its record high close at $950. Shares are currently trading above that all-time high closing level in premarket trading.
Yesterday the NASDAQ index closed at a record level. S&P index closed just below its record-high closing level. For the Dow Industrial Average average, it's high record close on Friday is at 40,003. The premarket levels are showing:
- Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a gain of 30.41 points. Yesterday, the index fell -196.82 points or -0.49% at 39806.76
- S&P futures are implying a gain of 4.87 points. Yesterday, the index rose 4.86 points or 0.09% at 5308.12
- Nasdaq futures are implying a decline of -1.44 points. Yesterday, the index rose 108.91 points or 0.65% at 16794.87
European stock indices are trading lower:
- German DAX, -0.47%
- France CAC , -0.94%
- UK FTSE 100, -0.36%
- Spain's Ibex, -0.19%
- Italy's FTSE MIB, -0.78% (delayed 10 minutes).
Shares in the Asian Pacific markets were lower across the board:
- Japan's Nikkei 225, -0.31%
- China's Shanghai Composite Index, -0.42%
- Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, -2.12%
- Australia S&P/ASX index, -0.15%
Looking at the US debt market, yields are little changed
- 2-year yield 4.832%, -0.4 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.822%
- 5-year yield 4.448%, -0.9 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.441%
- 10-year yield 4.431% -0.5 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.41%
- 30-year yield 4.572% -0.1 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.558%
Looking at the treasury yield curve spreads they are fairly steady:
- The 2-10 year spread is at -40.1 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -40.2 basis points.
- The 2-30 year spread is at -26.1 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -26.5 basis points.
In the European debt market yields in the benchmark 10 year yields are marginally lower:
