As the North American session begins, the EUR is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest. The USD is stronger. US stocks are marginally lower. European shares are lower as well. Yields are marginally higher.
Overnight, Australian retail sales came in we can expected at -0.4% versus 0.2% expected. In China, Manufacturing and services PMI came in lower than the previous month.
- Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.4, which is below the prior month value of 50.8.
- Non-Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.2, which is below the prior month value of 53.0.
The data helped to weaken the AUD and NZD who rely on China for growth.
Today on the economic calendar in North America.
- Canada GDP MoM (8:30 AM ET). Estimate 0.3% versus 0.6% last month.
- US employment cost index for the first quarter (10 AM ET). 1.0% versus 0.9% last quarter
- US Case Schiller home price data for February will be released (9 AM ET) with a gain of 0.1% MoM and 6.7% YoY expected.
- US consumer confidence (10 AM ET). Estimate 104.0 versus 104.7 last month
Tomorrow is a bigger day with the Federal Reserve rate decision at 2 PM. No change is expected. Fed Chair Powell will have the muzzle taken off him (the quiet period is over) and will be speaking on his and the Feds latest projections for inflation/growth/ employment and policy when he holds his press conference at 2 PM ET.
The Fed decision will be followed later this week by the US jobs report on Friday which is expected to show another strong gain of 250K vs 303K last month. The unemployment rate is expected at 3.8% (unchanged and still strong), and the average hourly earnings are expected at 0.3%.
Today is a big day for earnings. Below are a summary of the EPS and Revenues for some of the major releases and a indication of if they MISSED or BEAT expectations. There is a different industries in the earnings today with financials, manufacturing, food and beverage, oil, industrial and healthcare all represented:
PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) MIXED
- Earnings: $1.08 (Missed expectations of $1.22)
- Revenue: $7.7 billion (Beat expectations of $7.51 billion)
Corning Inc (GLW) BEAT
- Earnings: $0.38 (Beat expectations of $0.35)
- Revenue: $3.26 billion (Beat expectations of $3.12 billion)
McDonald's Corp (MCD) MIXED
- Earnings: $2.70 (Missed expectations of $2.72)
- Revenue: $6.17 billion (Beat expectations of $6.16 billion)
Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM) MIXED
- Earnings: $1.46 (Beat expectations of $1.36)
- Revenue: $21.85 billion (Missed expectations of $22.27 billion)
Molson Coors Beverage Co (TAP) BEAT
- Earnings: $0.95 (Beat expectations of $0.74)
- Revenue: $2.60 billion (Beat expectations of $2.50 billion)
Coca-Cola Co (KO) BEAT
- Earnings: $0.72 (Beat expectations of $0.70)
- Revenue: $11.30 billion (Beat expectations of $11.01 billion)
Eli Lilly and Co (LLY) MIXED
- Earnings: $2.58 (Beat expectations of $2.46)
- Revenue: $8.768 billion (Missed expectations of $8.92 billion)
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) BEAT
- Earnings: $2.58 (Beat expectations of $2.42)
- Revenue: $33.2 billion (Beat expectations of $32.01 billion)
Eaton Corporation PLC (ETN) BEAT
- Earnings: $2.40 (Beat expectations of $2.29)
- Revenue: $5.943 billion (Beat expectations of $5.91 billion)
Restaurant Brands International Inc (QSR) BEAT
- Earnings: $0.73 (Beat expectations of $0.72)
- Revenue: $1.74 billion (Beat expectations of $1.70 billion)
3M Co (MMM) BEAT
- Earnings: $2.39 (Beat expectations of $2.10)
- Revenue: $7.7 billion (Beat expectations of $7.63 billion)
Trane Technologies Inc (TT) BEAT
- Earnings: $1.92 (Beat expectations of $1.65)
- Revenue: $4.2 billion (Beat expectations of $4.1 billion)
GE Healthcare (GEHC) MISSED
- Earnings: $0.90 (Missed expectations of $0.91)
- Revenue: $4.6 billion (Missed expectations of $4.8 billion)
After the close, it gets interested with Amazon, AMD, Super Micro Computers and Starbucks all scheduled to release. Apple will report their earnings after the close on Thursday.
A snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins currently shows.:
- Crude oil is trading up by $0.46 at $83.11. At this time yesterday, the price was at $83.76
- Gold is trading down $24.64 or -1.06% at $2310.90. At this time yesterday, the price was higher at $2337.11
- Silver is trading down $0.60 or -2.25% at $26.52.. At this time yesterday, the price was at $27.33
- Bitcoin currently trades at $60,966 (and at session highs – the high price reach $64,714). At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $62,310
In the premarket, the US major indices are trading modestly higher after gains in training last week.
- Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a decline of -42.09 point. Yesterday, the index rose 146.43 points or 0.38% at 38386.10
- S&P futures are implying a decline of -5.97 points. Yesterday, the index rose 16.21 points or 0.22% at 5116.16
- Nasdaq futures are implying a decline of -24.97 points. Yesterday, the index rose 55.18 points for 0.35% at 15983.08
The European indices are trading mostly lower ahead of the US stock open (exception is a UK FTSE 100):
- German DAX, -0.39%
- France CAC , -0.19%
- UK FTSE 100, +0.50%
- Spain's Ibex, -1.58%
- Italy's FTSE MIB, -0.40% (delayed 10 minutes)
Shares in the Asian Pacific markets were mostly higher
- Japan's Nikkei 225, +1.24%
- China's Shanghai Composite Index, -0.26%
- Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, +0.09%
- Australia S&P/ASX index, +0.35%
Looking at the US debt market, yields are mostly lower after rising yesterday after the GDP data.
- 2-year yield 4.974%, +0.2 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.978%
- 5-year yield 4.651% +1.3 basis points at this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.653%
- 10-year yield 4.61%, +1.0 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.623%
- 30-year yield 4.738%, +0.2 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.737%
Looking at the treasury yield curve spreads moved more inverted:
- The 2-10 year spread is at -35.3 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -35.5 basis points
- The 2-30 year spread is at -23.3 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -24.2 basis points
European benchmark 10-year yields are higher:
