The EUR is the strongest and the CAD is the weakest as the North American session begins. The USD mixed with gains vs the CAD, AUD, NZD and CHF, and declines or is the EUR, GBP. The USDJPY is unchanged. The low to high trading ranges vs the USD are limited for the 2nd consecutive day. The USDJPY ranges only 26% of what is normal (21 vs 80 average of the last month). The USDCHF is 36%, and the NZDUSD is 39%. There is room to roam on a break given the right dynamics.
Potentially helping movement is the US CPI data which will be released at 8:30 AM. The expectation is for a rise of 0.1% for the headline number. That would lower the year-on-year measure to 3.3% from 3.7% last month. The core measure is expected to rise by 0.3%. That would keep the year-on-year steady at 4.1%.
Yields are lower in the US to start the US trading day. Stocks are modestly changed.
Home Depot Inc (HD) reported its financial results for March 2023 as follows:
- Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $3.81, surpassing the expected $3.76.
- Revenue reached $37.71 billion, slightly exceeding the expected $37.61 billion.
The company's guidance for the full fiscal year (FY23) includes:
- Comparable sales are expected to decline between -3% to -4%, which is narrower than the previous range of -2% to -5%.
- EPS for FY23 is projected to decrease between -11% to -9%, compared to the previous guidance of -13% to -7%.
- Same-store sales (SSS) are anticipated to decline between -4% to -3%, as opposed to the prior range of -5% to -2%.
- The expected operating margin for FY23 is between 14.1% to 14.2%, which is slightly narrower than the previous range of 14.0% to 14.3%.
Oil prices are marginally higher to start the trading day. Elevated borrowing costs may be dampening broader economic activity, potentially affecting oil demand. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) projected that the oil market could return to a surplus early next year, despite Saudi Arabia's extended production cuts. The IEA mentioned that recent declines in oil stockpiles due to Saudi Arabia's production reductions might reverse due to slow economic growth. However, the IEA cautioned that market balances could remain vulnerable to economic and geopolitical risks as demand continues to exceed available supplies heading into the winter in the Northern Hemisphere.
A snapshot of the markets as the NA session gets underway shows:
- Crude oil is trading down $0.14 or -0.18% at $78.12. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $77.30.
- Spot gold is trading down $1.09 or -0.06% at $1944.92. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $1935.33.
- Spot silver is trading up $0.09 or 0.42% had $22.38 at this time yesterday, the price was trading at $22.08.
- Bitcoin is trading at $36,365. Yesterday, the price was trading at $36,957.
In the US stock market, the major indices are trading near unchanged after a mixed result yesterday which saw the Dow industrial average move marginally higher while the S&P and NASDAQ index ended the day lower.
- Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a decline of -17 points. Yesterday, the index rose 54.77 points or 0.16% at 34337.88
- S&P index futures are implying a gain of 0.2 points. Yesterday the index fell -3.69 points or -0.08%
- NASDAQ futures are implying a gain of 27 points. Yesterday the index fell -30.36 points or -0.22%.
In the European equity markets, the major indices are trading marginally higher
- German DAX, +0.41%
- France's CAC, +0.04%
- UK's FTSE 100, -0.5%
- Spain's Ibex, -0.12%.
- Italy's FTSE MIB, +0.44% (10 minute delay)
In the Asia Pacific market, major indices closed mostly higher
- Japan's Nikkei index, +0.34%
- China's Shanghai Composite Index, +0.31%
- Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, -0.17%
- Australia's S&P/ASX index, +0.83%
In the US debt market, yields are mixed with the two-year down marginally and the longer end higher
- US 2Y T-NOTE: 5.039% -0.2 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 5.060%
- US 5Y T-NOTE: 4.649% -1.4 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.676%
- US 10Y T-NOTE: 4.620% -1.2 basis points at this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.643%
- US 30Y BOND: 4.733% -1.2 basis points. At this time yesterday, the others at 4.759%
- 2 – 10-year spread is at -41.9 basis points. This time yesterday, the spread was at -41.4 basis points
- 2 – 30 year spread is at -30.4 basis points basis points. This time yesterday the spread was at -30.0 basis points
In the European debt market, benchmark 10-year yields are lower:
