The EUR is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as the North American session begins. The USD is mixed to start the US session as traders await the ADP employment report, Fedspeak today and the US jobs report scheduled for Friday at 8:30 AM ET.
The ADP employment report will be released at 8:15 AM ET. That report has shown a more subdued job picture vs the BLS Non-farm payroll report. The ADP has averaged about 117K over the last 6 months, while the BLS Non-farm Payroll, has averaged 231K. The expectation for the ADP data this month is for a gain of 148K (vs 140K last month). The skew is lower.
There was a massive earthquake in Taiwan with damage/collapse of buildings, and life lost. The earthquake may impact chips supply as Taiwan semi conductor is likely to be impacted
The Fedspeak continues today with Atlanta Fed Pres. Bostic, NY Fed Pres. Williams, Fed Gov. Bowman, Fed Gov. Barr, Fed Gov. Kugler, expected to speak.
Crude oil futures are higher for the fourth consecutive day. OPEC announced that production cuts route remain in effect. Also, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) of OPEC+ welcomed Iraq and Kazakhstan's commitment to fully comply with their oil production quotas and to make adjustments for any previous overproduction. Additionally, the committee was positive about Russia's announcement that its voluntary adjustments in oil production for Q2 2024 will be based on production levels rather than exports.
A snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins currently shows:
- Crude oil is trading up $0.80 or 0.94% at $85.95. At this time yesterday, the price was at $84.94
- Gold is trading up down $5.02 or -0.22% at $2273.66. At this time yesterday, the price was $2259.36
- Silver is trading up $0.23 or 0.86% at $26.35. At this time yesterday, the price was at $25.53
- Bitcoin currently trades at $66,004. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $65,397.
In the premarket, the major indices are trading mixed/little changed (NASDAQ marginally lower). Yesterday the major indices all declined led by the Dow Industrial Average and the NASDAQ index which both fell around 1%
- Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a gain of 16.76. Yesterday the index fell -396.91 points or -1.00% at 39170.25
- S&P futures are implying a small gain of 0.945 points. Yesterday, the index fell -37.98 points or -0.72% at 5205.80
- Nasdaq futures are implying a decline of -9.03 points. Yesterday, the index fell -156.38 points or -0.95% at 16240.45
The European indices are mostly higher:
- German DAX, +0.27%
- France CAC , +0.23%
- UK FTSE 100, -0.26%
- Spain's Ibex, +0.41%
- Italy's FTSE MIB, +0.27%
Shares in the Asian Pacific markets were lower:
- Japan's Nikkei 225, -0.97%
- China's Shanghai Composite Index, -0.18%
- Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, -1.22%
- Australia S&P/ASX index, -1.34%
Looking at the US debt market, yields are near unchanged:
- 2-year yield 4.701%, unchanged. At this time Thursday, the yield was at 4.720%
- 5-year yield 4.355%, +0.2 basis points. At this time Thursday, the yield was at 4.365%
- 10-year yield 4.367%, +0.4 basis points. At this time Thursday, the yield was at 4.361%
- 30-year yield 4.514%, +0.5 basis points. At this time Thursday, the yield was at 4.499%
Looking at the treasury yield curve spreads:
- The 2-10 year spread is at -33.7 basis points. At this time Thursday, the spread was at -35.3 basis points
- The 2-30 year spread is at -18.7 basis points. At this time Thursday, the spread was at -22.2 basis points
European benchmark yields are mostly lower:
