The GBP is the strongest and the USD is the weakest as the NA session begins. Admittedly, the changes are relatively modest with the major indices scrunched together. The ranges are also relatively modest compared to the 22 day averages (about a month of trading - see yellow area comparing the range to the ATR).
Twas the night... well Friday before Christmas and I can't really say "not an economic data was stirring through the house".
There is a data dump today to frontload what will be a quiet week next week as the year comes to an end (I will also have the opportunity to rest and get rid of this cough that has left me with no voice).
The data will be highlighted by the favored Fed measure of inflation - the Core PCE Price Index. The expectation is for 3.3% for the YoY figure down from 3.5% last month. However, there has been chatter from some Fed officials about the 6-month trend. If you add the last 6 months, the numbers total 1.3% (2x = 2.6%). The expectations this month is for a 0.2% MoM increase which would lower that sum to 1.2% (or 2.4% sum). If it comes in less than the 0.2%, take that off the 2.4% number. Of course, if it is higher, that is not good for that argument.
A look at the calendar shows:
8:30 AM ET
GDP m/m (CAD)
- Forecast: 0.2%
- Previous: 0.1%
Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)
- Forecast: 0.2%
- Previous: 0.2%
- Core PCE Price index y/y (USD)
- Forecast: 3.3%
- Previous: 3.5%
- PCE Price Index m/m (USD)
- Forecast 0.0%
- Previous: 0.0%
- PCE Price Index y/y (USD)
- Forecast:2.8%
- Previous: 3.0%
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m (USD)
- Forecast: 0.1%
- Previous: 0.0%
Durable Goods Orders m/m (USD)
- Forecast: 2.4%
- Previous: -5.4%
Personal Income m/m (USD)
- Forecast: 0.4%
- Previous: 0.2%
Personal Spending m/m (USD)
- Forecast: 0.3%
- Previous: 0.2%
10:00 AM ET
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment (USD)
- Forecast: 69.4
- Previous: 69.4
New Home Sales (USD)
- Forecast: 689K
- Previous: 679K
Revised UoM 1- yr Inflation Expectations (USD)
- Forecast: Not provided
- Preliminary: 3.1%
- Revised UoM 5-yr inflation expectations (USD)
- Forecast: Not provided
- Preliminary 2.8%
The US stock futures are implying lower levels today after the rebound Thursday saw the Nasdaq index rise 1.26% and the dow up 0.87%. After the close yesterday, Nike announced earnings and expectations of a waning consumer going forward. Shares have tumbled -12.27% in pre-market trading. US yields are lower.
A snapshot of the markets to kickstart the North American session shows:
- Crude oil is trading up $0.52 or 0.70% at $74.41. Yesterday at this time, the price was trading at $73.31
- Spot gold is trading up $15 or 0.73% at $2061.13. Yesterday at this time the price was trading at $2037.49
- Spot silver trading up seven cents or 0.30% at $24.46. Yesterday at this time the price was trading at $24.23
- Bitcoin is trading higher at $43,594. Yesterday, at this time the price was trading at $44,049
In the US stock market, the major indices futures imply a higher opening after snapping the Dow and NASDAQ nine-day win streak yesterday
- Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a decline of -105 points. Yesterday, the index rose 322.35 points or 0.87%
- S&P index futures are implying a loss of -1 points Yesterday, the index rose 48.42 points or 1.03%.
- NASDAQ index futures are implying a decline of -13 points. Yesterday, the index rose 185.92 points or 1.26%
In the European equity markets, the major indices are modestly higher
- German DAX, +0.08%
- France's CAC, +0.05%
- UK's FTSE 100, +0.04%
- Spain's Ibex, +0.20%
- Italy's FTSE MIB, +0.09% (10 minute delay).
In the Asia Pacific market, major indices closed mostly lower:
- Japan's Nikkei index, rose 0.09%. For the week, the index rose 0.6%
- China's Shanghais composite index, fell -0.13%. For the week, the index fell -0.944%
- Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, fell -1.69%. For the week, the index fell -2.69%.
- Australia's S&P/ASX index, fell -0.03%. For the week, the index rose 0.8%.
In the US debt market, yields are lower:
- US 2Y T-NOTE: 4.327% -2.2 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.353%
- US 5Y T-NOTE: 3.849% -3.2 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was 3.857%
- US 10Y T-NOTE: 3.855% -3.8 basis points. At this time Friday, the yield was at 3.858%
- US 30Y BOND: 4.000%, -3.5 basis points. At this time Friday, the yield was at 3.998%
- 2 – 10-year spread is trading at -47.3 basis points. Yesterday at this time, the spread was at -49.6 basis points
- 2 – 30 year spread is trading at -32.3 basis points. Yesterday this time the spread was at -35.4 basis points
In the European debt market, benchmark 10-year yields are trading mixed.
