Forex
The strongest to the weakest of the major currencies

The JPY is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as the NA session begins. The USD is higher as well ahead of the ADP data at 8:15 AM ET. The expectations is for 200K. Last month came in at 242K vs 311K from the BLS survey. The ISM manufacturing data this month showed weakness at 46.9. The JOLTs data yesterday showed less job openings but it still is 2.5-2.8M more than pre-pandemic levels (but do you believe the numbers). The initial claims remain below 200 K indicative of a solid job market still. The BLS report will be released on Good Friday when the markets are closed.

The RBNZ raised rates by a greater than expected 50 BP with expectations for another 25 bps ahead. The news sent the NZDUSD spiking higher, but all the gains have been retraced and then some. The pair has moved back below the 100 day MA at 0.62976 and looks toward the 100 hour MA at 0.62976 as traders ponder a hard landing.

NZDUSD

The USD is higher but there is concerns about growth after the weaker ISM data and the weaker factory orders data yesterday. US stocks are trading modestly lower adding to the declines from yesterday of around -0.5% – -0.6%.

European ISM services data came in we can expected at 55.0 versus 55.6 expected. However, it was still the highest level going back to June 2022.

Overnight Fed's Mester said she expects rates to move above 5% and remain there for a long time.

A look at other market is showing:

  • Spot gold is trading up $2.46 or 0.12% at $2022.19.
  • Spot silver is down $0.27 or -1.10% at $24.73
  • WTI crude oil is trading unchanged near $80.71
  • Bitcoin is trading at $28,576. The high price today reached $28,782. The swing high from March 24 reached $29,380

looking at the premarket for US stocks, the major indices modestly lower:

  • Dow industrial average -22 points after yesterday's -198.77 point decline
  • S&P index -5.1 points after yesterday's -23.89 point decline
  • NASDAQ index -5 points after yesterday's -63.13 point decline

In the European equity markets the major indices are mostly lower:

  • German DAX -0.33%
  • Frances the CAC -0.11%
  • UK's FTSE 100 +0.38%
  • Spain's Ibex +0.65%
  • Italy's FTSE MIB -0.30%

In the US at that market, yields are mixed:

  • two year yield 3.823% -0.9 basis points
  • five year yield 3.394%, +0.5 basis points
  • 10 year yield 3.340%, +0.2 basis points
  • 30 year yield 3.584% -0.9 basis points

in the European debt market, the benchmark 10 year yields are mostly lower:

Europe
European benchmark 10 year yields