The JPY is the strongest and the CAD is the weakest as the North American session begins. The USD is starting the day a little weaker. However, the top to the bottom is relatively scrunched together. It may be the jobs report which is still 24+ hours away in the US. The expectations are for a gain of 161K in NFP jobs with the unemployment rate ticking down to 4.2% from 4.3% yesterday.
Today in the USD ADP national employment data for August will be released at 8:15 AM ET with expectations of 145K versus 122K last month.
Also today, the initial jobless claims will give a view on the current employment picture with expectations of 230K little changed from 231K last week. The continuing claims are expected at 1.865M also little changed from last week 1.868K.
Productivity for the second quarter (revised) will also be released at 8:30 AM ET with expectations of 2.5% versus 2.3% in the preliminary. Unit labor costs are expected at 0.8% versus 0.9%.
Finally at 10 AM the ISM nonmanufacturing PMI is expected at 51.1 versus 51.4 last month. The employment component last month came in at 51.1.
The point is there is a lot of jobs data coming out the US today.
Overnight in Europe, July Germany's industrial orders rose by 2.9% month-on-month, surpassing the expected decline of 1.5%. The previous month's figure was revised up from +3.9% to +4.6%. However, as Justin posted, the overall reading has been quite volatile throughout 2024. When excluding large, one-off orders, the data reveals a decrease of 0.4% in incoming orders compared to June, highlighting underlying weaknesses in demand.
Along those lines, the Ifo institute has downgraded its economic outlook for Germany, now expecting the economy to stagnate in 2024 instead of the previously forecasted growth of 0.4%. For 2025, Ifo has also lowered its growth projection from 1.5% to 0.9%. Looking further ahead to 2026, the institute expects the economy to continue growing at the same modest pace projected for 2025, indicating a subdued economic outlook for the coming years.
The EURUSD is still higher as the US dollar selling continues. The EURUSD has broken above its 200-hour MA and a swing area nare 1.1097 to 1.11042. Staying above that area, gives the buyers the clear advantage at the start of the US session.
A snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins shows:
- Crude oil is trading up $0.26 or 0.36% at $69.44. At this time yesterday, the price was at $70.82
- Gold is trading up $21 or 0.83% at $2516.. At this time yesterday, the price was at $2489.02.
- Silver is trading up $0.38 or 1.36% at $28.64. At this time yesterday, the price is at $28.05
- Bitcoin is trading lower at $56,685. At this time yesterday, the price was at $56,615
- Ethereum is trading lower at $2389.30. At this time yesterday, the price was at $2401.50
In the premarket, the snapshot of the major indices are mixed after a mixed day yesterday
- Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a gain of three points. Yesterday the index rose 38.04 points or 0.09% at 40,974.98
- S&P futures are implying a decline of - 4.57 points. Yesterday the index help -8.84 points or -0.16% at 5520.08
- Nasdaq futures are implying a decline of -49.78 points. Yesterday the index fell -52 points or -0.30% at 17084.30
Yesterday, the small-cap Russell 2000 fell -3.99 points or -0.19% at 2145.21
European stock indices are trading mixed after two days of declines:
- German DAX, +0.16%
- France CAC, -0.58%
- UK FTSE 100, -0.12%
- Spain's Ibex, +0.70%
- Italy's FTSE MIB, +0.24% (delayed 10 minutes).
Shares in the Asian Pacific markets closed lower:
- Japan's Nikkei 225, -1.05%
- China's Shanghai Composite Index, +0.14%
- Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, -0.07%
- Australia S&P/ASX index, +0.40%
Looking at the US debt market, yields are little changed:
- 2-year yield 3.762%, -0 point basis points. At the same yesterday, the yield was at 3.848%
- 5-year yield 3.557%, -0 point basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 3.618%
- 10-year yield 3.761%, -0.3 basis points. At this time in yesterday, the yield is at 3.810%
- 30-year yield 4.068%, +0.1 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield is at 4.103%
Looking at the treasury yield curve,
- The 2-10 year spread is positive at 0.05 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield spread was -3.3 basis points.
- The 2-30 year spread is at 30.8 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield spread was 25.7 basis points.
In the European debt market, the 10 year yields are mixed:
