The JPY is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest as the North American session begins. The USD is also stronger to start the US session with gains or unchanged vs all the major currencies. Having said that the major pair are relatively scrunched together today.
Australia's CPI for the quarter came in stronger-than-expected. The AUDUSD initially moved higher but has since retraced all the gains and trays low on the day.
The Bank of Canada will announce their interest-rate decision at 10 AM ET with the expectations of no change in policy. For a review of that decision CLICK HERE.
The House of Representative nominee from yesterday Tom Emmer, withdrew from the race after the hard right (and former Pres. Trump) criticized the choice. The GOP have since nominated Louisiana representative Mike Johnson. At least he has a common name which may confuse voters ; ). Johnson, who was first elected to Congress in 2016, voted against certifying the 2020 presidential election results. He was 2nd to Emmer in the nomination yesterday.
The private crude oil inventory data released near the end of day yesterday showed:
- Crude: -2.668 million
- Gasoline: -4.169 million
- Distillates: -2.313 million
- Cushing: +513,000
The EIA data will be released at 10:30 AM today with:
- Crude oil is expected to show a build of 0.239M
- Distillates is expected to show a draw of -1.168M
- Gasoline is expected to show a drawdown of -0.897M
Crude oil is trading up marginally today.
US yields are also up marginally today. The US stocks are mixed as the earnings barrage continues.
After the close yesterday, 2 of the Magnificent 7 announced earnings with Microsoft and Alphabet announcing. Microsoft beat expectations, but Alphabet disappointed despite the BEAT (it is in the details). Below is the summary of the earnings from after the close yesterday:
Snap Inc (SNAP) Q3 2023 (USD):
- Adj. EPS: +0.02 (exp. -0.04) - BEAT
- Revenue: 1.19 billion (exp. 1.11 billion) - BEAT
- Snap announces a 500 million share buyback program.
Visa Inc (V) Q4 2023 (USD): Visa is trading -$3.10 or -1.32%
- Adj. EPS: 2.33 (exp. 2.24) - BEAT
- Revenue: 8.6 billion (exp. 8.55 billion) - BEAT
- Visa authorizes a new 25 billion multi-year share buyback program.
Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) Q3 2023 (USD): Google is trading down $8.29 or -5.97% in premarket trading.
- EPS: 1.55 (exp. 1.45) - BEAT
- Revenue: 76.69 billion (exp. 75.9 billion) - BEAT
- Revenue ex-TAC: 64.05 billion (exp. 63.04 billion) - BEAT
Texas Instruments Inc (TXN) Q3 2023 (USD): Shares are trading down -$8.99 or -6.12%
- EPS: 1.85 (exp. 1.81) - BEAT
- Revenue: 4.53 billion (exp. 4.58 billion) - MISS
Microsoft Corp (MSFT) Q1 2024 (USD): Microsoft is trading up $12.52 or 3.79% in premarket trading.
- EPS: 2.99 (exp. 2.65) - BEAT
- Revenue: 56.5 billion (exp. 54.5 billion) - BEAT
- Cloud Revenue: 31.8 billion (exp. 31.19 billion) - BEAT
- Productivity Revenue: 18.59 billion (exp. 18.29 billion) - BEAT
- Microsoft returned USD 9.1 billion to holders and will provide guidance in the earnings call.
In total:
- There are 5 BEATs (Earnings that exceeded expectations).
- There is 1 MISS (Earnings that fell short of expectations).
Today, a review of the earnings released this morning shows:
Hess Corp (HES) Q3 2023 (USD):
- Adj. EPS: 1.64 (exp. 1.15) - BEAT
- Revenue: 2.84 billion (exp. 2.34 billion) - BEAT
Boeing Co (BA) Q3 2023 (USD):
- Adj. EPS: -3.26 (exp. -2.96) - MISS
- Revenue: 18.10 billion (exp. 18.01 billion) - BEAT
- FCF: -310 million (exp. -253 million) - MISS
- Operating Cash Flow: 22 million (exp. 448 million) - MISS
CME Group Inc (CME) Q3 2023 (USD):
- Adj. EPS: 2.25 (exp. 2.22) - BEAT
- Revenue: 1.30 billion (exp. 1.34 billion) - MISS
- Amount of Average Daily Trade Volume: 22.35 million (exp. 21.93 million) - BEAT
General Dynamics Corp (GD) Q3 2023 (USD):
- EPS: 3.04 (exp. 2.91) - BEAT
- Revenue: 10.57 billion (exp. 10.05 billion) - BEAT
Automatic Data Processing Inc (ADP) Q1 2024 (USD):
- Adj. EPS: 2.08 (exp. 2.03) - BEAT
- Revenue: 4.51 billion (exp. 4.52 billion) - MISS
Moody’s Corp (MCO) Q3 2023 (USD):
- Adj. EPS: 2.43 (exp. 2.30) - BEAT
- Revenue: 1.47 billion (exp. 1.46 billion) - BEAT
- Reaffirms FY adj. EPS view 9.75-10.25 (exp. 10.02)
- Reaffirms FY Revenue growth view "high single digit" (exp. +8.5%)
T-Mobile US Inc (TMUS) Q3 2023 (USD):
- EPS: 1.82 (exp. 1.74) - BEAT
- Revenue: 19.25 billion (exp. 19.32 billion) - MISS
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc (TMO) Q3 2023 (USD):
- Adj. EPS: 5.69 (exp. 5.61) - BEAT
- Revenue: 10.574 billion (exp. 10.59 billion) - BEAT
- FY EPS view: 21.50 (exp. 22.28) - MISS
- FY Revenue view: 42.7 billion (exp. 43.49 billion) - MISS
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT) Q3 2023 (USD):
- EPS: 1.67 (exp. 1.67) - MEET
- Revenue: 2.67 billion (exp. 2.62 billion) - BEAT
Note: "BEAT" indicates that the company's earnings/revenues exceeded expectations, "MISS" indicates that the company's earnings/revenues fell short of expectations, and "MEET" indicates that the company's earnings/revenues met expectations.
After the close 1 more of the Magnificent 7 will announce with Meta scheduled. Amazon will announce on Thursday after the close. Below is the list of major releases for the rest of the trading week (* denotes before the open):
- Meta
- IBM
- ServiceNow
Thursday:
- Altria*
- Southwest*
- Northrup Grumman*
- Merck*
- Amazon
- Intel
- Ford
- Chipotle
Friday:
- Exxon Mobil*
- Chevron*
- Phillips 66*
- Colgate-Palmolive*
A snapshot of the markets as the NA session gets underway shows:
- Crude oil is trading up up $0.15 or 0.18% at $83.89. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $85.57.
- Spot gold is trading up $3.85 or 0.20% at $1974.64. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $1962.15.
- Spot silver is trading down $0.14 or -0.62% at $22.79. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $22.82. .
- Bitcoin is trading at $34,268. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $34,658.
In the US stock market, the major indices are trading mixed with the NASDAQ and S&P trading lower while the Dow Industrial Average is higher.
- Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a gain of 87 points. Yesterday, the index rose 204.97 points.
- S&P index futures are implying a decline of 10.25 points. Yesterday, the index rose 30.66 points snapping in a 5 day decline
- NASDAQ futures are implying a decline of 63 points. Yesterday, the index rose 121.55 points for its 2nd gain in a row
In the European equity markets, the major indices are mostly higher
- German DAX, +0.13%.
- France's CAC, +0.08%.
- UK's FTSE 100, +0.31%
- Spain's Ibex, -0.02 percent.
- Italy's FTSE MIB, -0.65% (10 minute delay)
In the Asia Pacific market, major indices were lower:
- Japan's Nikkei index, +0.67%
- China's Shanghai Composite Index, +0.40%
- Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, +0.55%
- Australia's S&P/ASX index, -0.04%
In the US debt market, yields are moving mostly higher:
- US 2Y T-NOTE: 5.085% +1.4 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 5.094%
- US 5Y T-NOTE: 4.838% +1.5 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.831%
- US 10Y T-NOTE: 4.857% up 1.7 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.873% .
- US 30Y BOND: 4.979% +1.6 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 5.016%.
- 2 – 10-year spread is at -22.8 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -21.7 basis points.
- 2 – 30 year spread is at -10.6 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -7.8 basis points.
In the European debt market, benchmark 10-year yields are trading higher:
