The NZD is the strongest and the USD is the weakest as the North American session begins. US traders are back with full stomachs after the Thanksgiving Day holiday. The US stock market will be open today, but will close early at 1:00 PM ET. The US bond market will be close at 1:15 PM ET.
After returning from the holiday yesterday, the US stocks are mixed with the Dow higher. The S&P up marginally, and the Nasdaq index is down marginally. Retailers are gearing up for Black Friday, hoping to boost holiday season sales. However, they face challenges as high inflation and elevated borrowing costs may deter American consumers from spending. The economy remains more of an events economy vs goods, but hope springs eternal, but it probably comes at a cost to margins.
In the US debt market, yields are higher to start the trading day.
The U.S. economic calendar is relatively quiet today, with the main highlight being the release of the November flash S&P Global manufacturing and services purchasing managers' indices by S&P Global. The manufacturing index, considered a gauge of economic activity in the U.S., is expected to drop to 49.8 from October's 50.0, indicating a contraction in the economy when below 50. The services component is expected at 50.4 vs 50.6 last month. Recall from earlier this week, jobless claims came in better than expected, but durable goods orders came in weaker than expected as did existing home sales. The combination shows the U.S. economy might be slowing but could still avoid a recession. The Fed is focused on avoiding a recession, but also keeping prices moving down.
Earlier this week, Citigroup's CEO Jane Fraser, initiated a series of layoffs and organizational changes as part of an effort to streamline the global bank. The bank has not disclosed the exact number of job cuts but is focused on eliminating positions that are no longer necessary, starting with senior-level employees and eventually affecting lower-level staff. This restructuring aims to conclude by the end of the first quarter, with internal speculation suggesting that it could result in the elimination of around 10% of positions. The bank's head count had increased significantly under Fraser's tenure, but with these restructuring efforts and the likely reduction in hiring, it is expected to decrease in the coming years, potentially improving the bank's profitability. Layoffs beget layoffs. TIme will tell if the actions kickstart other consolidation efforts in the financial industry which is generally high paying jobs.
Overnight, Japan's core ex-food consumer inflation increased by 2.9% on an annualized basis, which was the first rise in four months, but was slightly lower than the expected 3.0% level. The rise in inflation as traders ponder the potential normalization of the Bank of Japan's loose monetary policy. While the BOJ has made some adjustments to address issues like yen weakness and rising bond yields, it has not provided a clear timeline for moving away from its current policy. Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the bank would only consider changes when convinced that wage growth, which has been slow for the past two years, was on the rise.
On other news overnight, NZ retail sales came in higher than expected with headline sales QoQ at 0.0% vs -1.5% estimate. The core retail sales QoQ was also higher than expected at 1.0% vs -1.5% est,
German Final GDP came in as expected at -0.1% and its ifo Business climate came in weaker than estimate at 87.3 vs 87.5 but higher than last month at 86.9
Canada retail sales will be released with estimate of 0.0% vs -0.1% last month, with the ex auto at -0.2% vs 0.1% last month.
A snapshot of the markets to kickstart the North American session shows:
- Crude oil is trading down -$0.54 at $76.57. Yesterday at this time, the price was trading at $76.42
- Spot gold is trading up $3.25 or 0.16% at $1995.44. Yesterday at this time, the price was trading at $1992.50
- Spot silver is trading down -$0.16 or -0.70% at $23.66 . Yesterday at this time, the price was trading at $23.84
- Bitcoin is trading higher at $37,696. Yesterday at this time, the price was trading at $37,322
In the US stock market, the major indices restart with a mixed market. On Wednesday, the major indices closed higher. Nvidia is trading down -1.69% in premarket trading after their earnings announced on Tuesday. Today, they announced a delay of a chip for China until the 1Q of next year.
- Dow Industrial Average is trading up 78 points. On Wednesday, the index rose 184.74 points or 0.53% at $35273.04.
- S&P index is trading up 3 points. On Wednesday, the index rose 18.45 points or 0.41% at 4556.63
- NASDAQ index is down -20 points. On Wednesday, the index rose 65.88 points or 0.46% at 14265.86
In the European equity markets, the major indices are trading mixed/mostly higher.
- German DAX, +0.04%
- France's CAC, +0.16%
- UK's FTSE 100, -0.26%
- Spain's Ibex, +0.28%
- Italy's FTSE MIB, +0.30% (10 minute delay)
In the US debt market, yields are trading higher:
- US 2Y T-NOTE: 4.944%, up 3.4 basis points. The closing level from Wednesday was at 4.897%
- US 5Y T-NOTE: 4.495%, up 5.6 basis points. The closing level from Wednesday was at 4.432%
- US 10Y T-NOTE: 4.472%, up 5.6 basis points. The closing level from Wednesday was at 4.408%
- US 30Y BOND: 4.597% up 4.9 basis points.. The closing level from Wednesday was at 4.543%
- 2 – 10-year spread closed at -47.0basis points. This time Friday, the spread was at -49.2 basis points
- 2 – 30 year spread closed at -34.7 basis points. This time yesterday the spread was at -35.7basis points
In the European debt market, benchmark 10-year yields are trading mixed:
