The Bank of Canada will announce their rate decision tomorrow at 10 AM ET, with expectations of a 25 basis point hike to 5.0%. It would be the 2nd consecutive meeting where the bank raised the rates by 25 basis points. The hikes come after 3 months when the bank had a "conditional pause".
Focus will be on how the BOC sees rates going forward. Growth in Canada for the 1st quarter was at 3.1% and it is tracking close to 2% in the 2nd quarter (but expected to move lower in the 2H). Inflation declined to an annual rate of 3.4% as a result of base effects. The bank does not see inflation return it to 2% target until 2025. Like in the US core inflation remains sticky.
The Bank of Canada will update its growth/inflation projections. Analysts expect:
- 2023 CPI to rise to 3.7% from 3.5%
- 2024 CPI is expected to remain unchanged at 2.3%
For GDP:
- 2023 GDP expected at 1.3% versus 1.4% last
- 2024 CPI expected at 1.0% versus 1.3% last
Technically, the price is below a swing area between 1.3271 and 1.32853. Stay below 1.32853 keeps the bias shift more to the downside. On the downside, the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart comes at 1.32349 and is the next target to get to and through. The low price for the day reached 1.3244.
