Forex
The strongest to weakest of the major currencies

The USD is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as the NA traders enter for the day.

The RBNZ raised rates by the expected 50 basis points last night. Projections for rates going forward were also raised:

  • In September 2022, the RBNZ expects the official cash rate to be 2.68% (previous 1.89%).
  • By June 2023, the RBNZ expects the official cash rate to be 3.88% (previous 2.84%).
  • In September 2023, the RBNZ expects the official cash rate to be 3.95% (previous 3.1%).

That 3.95% is expected to be the peak says the RBNZ. The peak was previously seen at 3.35% by the Bank.

The NZDUSD initially move higher but has erased the gains on the day and trades near unchanged. The price high fell short of the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the April 5 high at 0.65289. The high price reached 0.65134 before rotating back to the downside toward the closing level 0.6458. The AUDUSD has been dragged lower along with it and moved back below the 100 hour mA at 0.70719 in the process.

Oil prices are higher after the private inventory data showed gasoline stocks at the lowest level since 2014 ahead of the Memorial Day weekend. Natural gas futures rose above $9 for the first time since 2008.. For the year the prices are up 145% from the end of December close.

US stocks are lower in premarket trading. After the close, chipmaker Nvidia will be reporting their earnings. With today being the "hump day" of the trading week, the Nasdaq is on pace to close down for the 8th consecutive week. The NASDAQ index closed at 11354.62 on Friday. It close yesterday at 11264.45). The S&P index is modestly higher and on pace to snap its 7 week decline. It closed at 3901.35 on Friday. The index closed at 3941.49 yesterday. The Dow industrial average is also higher and is on pace to snap its 8 week decline. It closed at 31261.91. The index closed yesterday at 31928.63.

In the EU, both Knot and Rhen of the ECB backed off of their 50 basis point hike rhetoric. Growth is expected to be revised lower next month as result of Ukraine war and other global developments.

The Federal Reserve will publish their minutes of the last meeting at 2 PM ET. Recall the Fed hiked rates by 50 basis points at the meeting. At that time, inflation was the main concern. With warnings about growth from likes of the Target and Walmart, expectations have moved back toward the recessionary bias. Yields are also lower. Yesterday, the shoe dropped in the housing data as new home sales fell sharply as the impact from higher rates and higher prices are starting to be felt by buyers. The month supply of new homes spiked to 9 months from 6 months in the month before. A normal level is around 6 months.

A look around the markets shows:

In the premarket for US trading, the futures are implying low levels for the major indices at the open. Nvidia earnings will be released after the close and we watched closely by traders.

  • Dow is down - 125 points after yesterdays 48.38 point rise
  • S&P index is down - 15 points after yesterdays -32.27 point decline
  • NASDAQ index is down - 58 points after yesterdays -270.83 point decline

In Europe: the major indices are trading mixed

  • German DAX is down 24.15 points or -0.18% at 13895.41
  • France's CAC is down - -15.31 points or -0.24% at 6237.84
  • UK's FTSE 100 is down +70.29 points or 0.23% 7501.60
  • Spain's Ibex is down up 37.98 points or 0.44% 8669.19

The US debt market this morning, yields are modestly lower moving out the curve. The 2 year is up modestly.

  • 2 year yield 2.506%, up 2.1 basis points
  • 5 year yield 2.728%, down -1.5 basis points
  • 10 year yield 2.731%, down 2.5 basis points
  • 30 year yield 2.943% down 3.0 basis points

In the European debt market the benchmark 10 year yields are lower across the board as ECB members move back in line with expectations for 25 basis point hike to launch rates in July:

European
European benchmark 10 year yields are lower