The USD is the strongest of the major currencies and the JPY is the weakest. The USD has now been the strongest of the major currencies for the 3rd consecutive (at least now - the day is not over).
Today, Fed Chair Powell is due to deliver "opening remarks" at the Division of Research and Statistics Centennial Conference in Washington. Opening remarks can be vague at times. We will see if the Chair gives us something more. The markets will be on alert. Powell, after the Fed kept interest rates unchanged last week, emphasized the central bank's commitment to maintaining borrowing costs at levels aimed at reducing inflation to its 2% target. He expressed uncertainty about whether this goal had been achieved but indicated that future rate adjustments would be approached cautiously (market interpreted his comments dovishly). Yesterday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller highlighted a strong 4.9% GDP growth rate in the third quarter, suggesting it could influence the central bank's policy decisions. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman also acknowledged this GDP figure and voiced support for raising rates, especially if a recent slowdown in price increases appears to be ending. Kashkari was unsure about future course of rates but did not rule it out. Goolbee was a bit more dovish (he is a dove).
Overnight, EU retail sales fell -0.3% versus -0.2% expected. Yesterday, German industrial production surprise with a -1.4% for for its 5th straight monthly decline.
Stocks are working on their longest winning streaks since 2021 (7 days for the S&P and Dow and 8 days for the Nasdaq index). Microsoft shares closed at a record high yesterday at $360.53. It is currently is trading at $361 in premarket trading. Yesterday, the NASDAQ index closed above its 100-day moving average at 13616.97 (closed at 13639.86). The S&P remains below its 100-day moving average at 4402.73 (it closed at 4378.37). Disney will report earnings after the close today.
Oil prices are lower after an unexpected increase in U.S. crude inventories. The private inventory report released late yesterday showed a significant rise of nearly 12 million barrels in U.S. crude inventories for the past week, in contrast to the anticipated drawdown of 300,000 barrels. Apparently, the official weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration has been postponed until the week of November 13th.
A snapshot of the markets as the NA session gets underway shows:
- Crude oil is trading down $-1.31 or -1.69% at $76.04. At this time yesterday the price was trading at $79.70
- Spot gold is trading down $-4.61 or -0.25% at $1964.51. At this time the price was trading at $1958.62
- Spot silver is trading down $-0.13 or -0.58% $22.49. At this time yesterday the price was trading higher at $22.51
- Bitcoin is trading at $35,458. This time yesterday the price was trading at $34,738
In the US stock market, the major indices are trading modestly higher. The NASDAQ has been up 8 consecutive days. The S&P and Dow have been up for 7 consecutive days.
- Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a gain of 48 points. Yesterday the index rose 56.74 points or 0.17%
- S&P index futures are implying a gain of 5.2 points. Yesterday the index rose 12.38 points or 0.28%.
- NASDAQ futures are implying a gain of 18 points. Yesterday the index rose 121.08 points or 0.90%
In the European equity markets, the major indices are trading marginally higher
- German DAX, 0.02%
- France's CAC, 0.24%
- UK's FTSE 100, 0.03%
- Spain's Ibex, 0.09%
- Italy's FTSE MIB, -0.06% (10 minute delay)
In the Asia Pacific market, major indices closed mostly lower:
- Japan's Nikkei index, -0.33%. On Tuesday the index -1.34%
- China's Shanghai Composite Index, -0.16%. On Tuesday the index -0.04%
- Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, -0.58%. On Tuesday the index -1.65%
- Australia's S&P/ASX index, +0.26%. On Tuesday the index -0.29%
In the US debt market, yields are mixed with the shorter in higher and the longer in lower
- US 2Y T-NOTE: 4.934%, +1.6 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yellows at 4.944%
- US 5Y T-NOTE: 4.548% +1.1 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.582%
- US 10Y T-NOTE: 4.562% -0.9 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.626%
- US 30Y BOND: 4.696% -3.8 basis points. At this time yesterday, the others at 4.796%
- 2 – 10-year spread is at -37.1 basis points. This time yesterday, the spread was at -31.6 basis points
- 2 – 30 year spread is at -23.5 basis points. This time yesterday, the spread was at -14.7 basis points
The yield spreads are turning more negative once again after the 2 – 30 year spread moved briefly into positive territory recently, and the 2 – 10 year spread reached -11.4 basis point Microsoft closed at a record high s on October 20.
In the European debt market, benchmark 10-year yields are mostly lower:
