The USD is the strongest and the EUR is the weakest as the NA session begins. The major currencies ranking are showing relatively scrunched together. As a result, the rankings can shift around.
Looking at the ranges vs the 22 day averages (see table below), the EURUSD, GBPUSD, USCHF, and USDCAD all have ranges that are 52% of normal (i.e. the average range over the last month of trading). The AUDUSD and NZDUSD have ranges that are between 60% and 70% of normal.
The outlier in the currency market price action is the USDJPY. That range is 116% of normal after it broke above the 150.00 level and extended to a new high for the year at 150.77. That run took the pair closer to the 2022 high at 151.938 (there is not a lot of targets until that level).
After the run higher, a senior Japan ofñcial said 'excessive' FX volatility, FX should move stably with fundamentals, and true to recent history, an eventual "swoosh" took the price down toward the 100-hour MA at 149.909 (low reached 149.86).
The price of the USDJPY has bounced back higher reaching 150.61, but has since rotated back lower with a "post-tumble" low down at 150.20. That is still above the fear-filled 150.00 level but fundamentals focused on central bank policies remain the focus and traders remain brave above the 150.00 level so far.
Today, the ECB is expected to halt its 10 consecutive interest rate hikes due to a weakening eurozone economy when it announces its decision at 8:15 AM ET, with Germany potentially entering a recession. Although inflation remains above the ECB's target, and Middle East conflicts are pushing up energy prices, growth is slowing. The ECB aims to strike a balanced approach, not appearing too hawkish while keeping the door open for future rate hikes.
The Federal Reserve policymakers will be meeting next week and will have fresh data, including the first reading of third-quarter GDP, which is expected to show a significant increase at a 4.3% annualized rate, driven by robust consumer spending supported by a strong labor market. Despite the strong GDP number, the Fed is expected to maintain unchanged interest rates at its upcoming meeting due to already tightened financial conditions, particularly with the surge in U.S. Treasury yields, but market traders will still be very interested in their look toward December.
Despite a beat by Facebook after the close, it's shares are trading lower in trading today and back below its 100 day MA near $300 as investors punish for being modestly light on guidance. Shares are down 3.97% in pre-market trading and dragging other indices lower.
Today, a review of the earnings released this morning shows mostly beats but the markets in the "I don't care" mode:
Comcast Corp (CMCSA) - Q3 2023 (USD):
- Adj. EPS: BEAT ($1.08 vs. expected: $0.95)
- Revenue: BEAT ($30.12 billion vs. expected: $29.68 billion)
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP) - Q3 2023 (USD):
- EPS: BEAT ($0.48 vs. expected: $0.47)
- Revenue: BEAT ($3.81 billion vs. expected: $3.77 billion)
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co (BMY) - Q3 2023 (USD):
- Adj. EPS: BEAT ($2.00 vs. expected: $1.76)
- Revenue: MEET ($10.97 billion vs. expected: $10.97 billion)
Hershey Co (HSY) - Q3 2023 (USD):
- Adj. EPS: BEAT ($2.60 vs. expected: $2.45)
- Revenue: BEAT ($3.03 billion vs. expected: $2.95 billion)
Northrop Grumman Corp (NOC) - Q3 2023 (USD):
- EPS: BEAT ($6.18 vs. expected: $5.81)
- Revenue: BEAT ($9.8 billion vs. expected: $9.58 billion)
Southwest Airlines Co (LUV) - Q3 2023 (USD):
- EPS: MEET ($0.38 vs. expected: $0.38)
- Revenue: BEAT ($6.5 billion vs. expected: $6.56 billion)
Valero Energy Corp (VLO) - Q3 2023 (USD):
- Adj. EPS: BEAT ($7.49 vs. expected: $7.47)
- Revenue: MISS ($38.40 billion vs. expected: $38.46 billion)
Merck & Co Inc (MRK) - Q3 2023 (USD):
- EPS: BEAT ($2.13 vs. expected: $1.95)
- Revenue: BEAT ($16 billion vs. expected: $15.32 billion)
Boston Scientific Corp (BSX) - Q3 2023 (USD):
- EPS: MISS ($0.44 vs. expected: $0.48)
- Revenue: BEAT ($3.527 billion vs. expected: $3.47 billion)
After the close, Amazon will lead. Intel and Ford will announce a day after coming to an agreement with the UAW workers:
- Amazon
- Intel
- Ford
- Chipotle
Friday:
- Exxon Mobil*
- Chevron*
- Phillips 66*
- Colgate-Palmolive*
A snapshot of the markets as the NA session gets underway shows:
- Crude oil is trading down -$2.05 or -2.4% at $83.35. At this time yesterday the price was trading at $83.89.
- Spot gold is trading up $4.49 or 0.22% at $1984.20. At this time yesterday the price was trading at $1974.64.
- Spot silver is trading up $0.07 or 0.32% at $22.91. At this time yesterday the price was trading at $22.79.
- Bitcoin is trading at $34,199. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $34,268.
In the US stock market, the major indices are trading lower
- Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a decline of -142 points. Yesterday, the index fell -105.45 points
- S&P index futures are implying a decline of -31 points. Yesterday, the index fell -60.91 points
- NASDAQ futures are implying a decline of -139 points. Yesterday, the index fell 318.65 points for its 2nd worst day of the year
In the European equity markets, the major indices are mostly higher
- German DAX, -1.46%
- France's CAC, -0.83%.
- UK's FTSE 100, -0.79%
- Spain's Ibex, -1.01% percent.
- Italy's FTSE MIB, -0.7% (10 minute delay)
In the Asia Pacific market, major indices were lower:
- Japan's Nikkei index, -2.14%
- China's Shanghai Composite Index, +0.48%
- Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, -0.24%
- Australia's S&P/ASX index, -0.61%
In the US debt market, yields are moving mostly higher:
- US 2Y T-NOTE: 5.133% up 1.2 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 5.085%
- US 5Y T-NOTE: 4.917% +0.2 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.838%
- US 10Y T-NOTE: 4.968% +1.5 basis points at this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.857%
- US 30Y BOND: 5.106% +1.4 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.979%
- 2 – 10-year spread is at -15.7 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -22.8 basis points.
- 2 – 30 year spread is at -2.3 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -10.6 basis points.
In the European debt market, benchmark 10-year yields are little changed:
