The USD is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest (a day after being the strongest). The move higher comes after the greenback moved mostly lower yesterday (although declines were lowered in the NY session yesterday). That move lower came as traders focused more on the "other currency".
The NZDUSD and EURUSD were the biggest risers yesterday on the back of China growth for the NZD and higher inflation expectations for the EURUSD.
That storyline remains the same today. However, the focus is more on the US which has its own bullish dynamics in play. The US 10 year yield which tested the 4% level yesterday, if moving more above that key level today.
Meanwhile, in the EU today, the inflation fear remains. Flash CPI was higher for both the headline and the core measures. A move of 50 BPs is locked in for the next meeting by the ECB, and another 50 is gaining favor for the May meeting as well.
Despite those worries in the EU, the inflation worries remain in the US as well. Today Feds Kashkari and Waller will both speak. Yesterday, Kashkari comments were more hawkish. Waller is thought to be more of a hawk. Both are speaking, but not until later in the day (4 PM and 6 PM ET respectively).
Before that, traders will be focused on the weekly initial claims data and the revised labor costs and productivity numbers for the 4Q. Recall, productivity rose by a higher than expected 3.0% in the initial report as unit labor costs eased to 1.1% (from 2.0% in 3Q). That good news will be partly reversed with productivity expected to ease to 2.6% from 3.0%, and labor costs are expected to rise to 1.6% from 1.1%.
US stocks are mixed with the Dow up, and S&P and Nasdaq lower. The Dow is boosted by Salesforce after better earnings. Tesla had their yesterday yesterday and the market is voting with a thumbs down.
A snapshot of the market currently shows:
- Spot gold is trading down $-4.58 or -0.25% at $1831.72.
- Spot silver is trading down $0.19 -0.90% at $20.79
- WTI crude oil is trading up $0.35 at $78.04
- Bitcoin is trading lower versus the 5 PM level yesterday at $23,359. Near 5 PM yesterday the price was trading at $23,544.
The premarket futures market for US stocks is implying:
- Dow Industrial Average up 79 points after yesterday's 5.14 points gain
- S&P index down 15.64 points after yesterday's -18.76 point decline
- NASDAQ index down -79.32 points after yesterday's -76.06 point decline
Yesterday, the NASDAQ index close back below its 200 day moving average at 11405.48. Bearish.
The S&P index tested its 200 day moving average at 3940.31 but closed above the level at 3951.40. The premarket price implies a move below that moving average currently. Closing below would be more negative technically.
In the European equity markets, the major indices are mixed/little changed:
- German DAX -0.21%
- Frances CAC +0.2%
- UK's FTSE 100 -0.04%
- Spain diabetics +0.04%
in the Asian Pacific markets:
- Japan's Nikkei 225 fell -0.06%
- Shanghai composite Index fell -0.05%
- Australia's S&P/ASX index rose 0.05%
- Hang Seng index fell -0.92%
in the US debt market, yields are higher across the curve with the longer and moving the most to the upside (steeper yield curve although the two – 10 spread is still well negative at 86.8 basis points):
A snapshot of the European benchmark tenure yields are showing mixed, but modest results:
