Fundamental Overview
TSLA is now up more than 40% since the election day as the bullish momentum in the stock exploded following Trump’s victory. This shouldn’t be surprising given that Elon Musk bet big on Trump and the market is now rewarding it.
It looks like the US economy continues not only to do well but also re-accelerating amid the Fed’s easing and the expectations of expansionary fiscal policies like tax cuts and deregulation. Moreover, the manufacturing cycle might be in the early innings of a growth phase, so those are all positive macro factors for the stock.
Tesla, like Coinbase, Bitcoin and Dogecoin, have been the top beneficiaries of Trump’s victory given their direct connection to Trump. For now, there’s no real top in sight as we would likely need a contractionary monetary policy or a notable slowdown in the economy.
The risk going forward is the Fed. If the central bank starts to mention the need of more tightening, then we could see some big corrections in all risk assets. That day though looks to be at least a couple of months away for now.
TSLA Stock Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that TSLA broke above the resistance zone around the 270.00 level and exploded higher as Trump’s victory became clear. The stock is now trading around the 359.00 level in pre-market. The target should be the all-time high around the 414.50 level but that doesn’t mean it cannot break through and reach new highs.
TSLA Stock Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have an upward trendline defining the current bullish momentum. That’s now far away from the current price and it’s unlikely that we will see a pullback into it in the near term unless we get a very hot US CPI report tomorrow.
If we do get there though, the buyers will likely lean on it to position for a rally into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower and below the previous resistance now turned support to increase the bearish bets into new lows.
TSLA Stock Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have another minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on this timeframe. The buyers will likely keep on bidding the stock up with a defined risk below the trendline, while the sellers will look for a break lower to start targeting a pullback into the next trendline.
Upcoming Catalysts
This week is a bit empty on the data front with the most important releases scheduled for the latter part of the week. Tomorrow, we have the US CPI report. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales data.
