Yesterday US 10 year yield moved down 19.1 basis points. Today there is a rebound with the yield now up around 9.8 basis points at 4.543%.
Technically, the fall yesterday took the yield below a swing level at 4.484% on its way to the low of 4.434%. Looking at the daily chart, the next major target area is at:
- Swing area between 4.326% to 4.362%,
- 100 day MA at 4.331% (blue line on chart above)
- 38.2% retracement at 4.346%
That target area was not approached with today's low coming in at 4.428%, but remains a key target on more downside momentum.
The corrective move higher today has now taken the price back above the swing level near 4.484% and has moved to a high of 4.559%. Looking at the hourly chart, that has taken the yield toward the falling 100 and 200 hour MAs at 4.577% and 4.584%. If the bias lower is to continue, I want to see those MAs stall the uptick. Do so, and a resumption of the move lower can resume.
