Feds Waller's comment that the March meeting will be 'in play' for a rate hike, has helped to keep the dollar moving higher. The greenback is now the strongest of the major currencies, overtaking the JPY for that distinction. The NZD and CAD are the weakest.
The chances of a rate hike has increased to 56% in March and 85% by June. A second rate hike by July is now up to 55% while third hike by December is up to 58%.
EURUSD:
The EURUSD as moved to a new low and test the 1.1253 next support level. The next targets come in at a swing low from Wednesday before the FOMC at 1.1247. Below that and the door opens for a rotation back down toward the swing lows from November 30 at 1.1233. The swing low from December 7 at 1.1226, and the swing low from December 15 at 1.12263.
Close risk now will be eyed at 1.12658 which was near swing lows from December 8, December 10, and intraday on December 14. Earlier today, the price did stall near that level on two separate hourly bars before breaking through in the last hour or so of trading.
GBPUSD.
The GBPUSD has moved below the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.32714, the 100 hour moving average at 1.32584, and next looks toward the 200 hour moving average at 1.32427. A break below the 200 hour moving average in the opens the door further four the sellers with 1.3222, and 1.3208 and below that, the extremes from November 29 between 1.3170 and 1.3193 .
USDJPY:
The USDJPY is back up testing its 100 hour moving average at 113.735 after breaking back above its 200 hour moving average at 113.648. There was some stall against the 200 hour moving average and now there is a bit of a stall against the 100 hour moving average as well. A move above would increase the bullish bias and reestablish the aforementioned moving averages at support rather than resistance.
USDCHF
The USDCHF has made the push back above its 100 and 200 hour moving averages near 0.9226 after earlier in the day holding support near the 200 day moving average and pushing higher, and then after waffling above and below the 100 day moving average before pushing above that moving average. The next upside target comes against the 0.9249 to 0.92557 swing area (see green numbered circles). Above that and swing highs between 0.9264 and 0.9274 will be targeted.
