The USDCAD has been stepping to the downside in trading today after stalling the rise near a swing area between 1.3553 and 1.3566 on Friday and into the Asian session today. The inability to extend above 1.3566 gave the sellers the go-ahead to push lower in the European session. That move has moved back below a floor that held the pair from April 21 through May 5. On Friday the price moved above that old area extending to the next target swing area.
The fall below that area and then the 100-day moving average of 1.35114 (overlaid blue line on the hourly chart above), has sellers feeling more confident with more work to do. Technically if the price can stay below the 100-day moving average, that is the best-case scenario for the downside potential. Alternatively staying below 1.35266 (high of the old floor from April 21 through May 5), would keep the sellers and play.
On the downside, the 50% of the range since the April high comes in at 1.34905, and below that, the 200-hour moving average comes in at 1.34647, the 200-day moving average comes in at 1.34578, and the rising 100-hour moving average comes in at 1.3448.
