The USDCAD fell to - and through - the 200-hour MA (and a swing area between 1.3207 - 1.32299) yesterday, but failed. The price rebounded into the close modestly.
Trading today, the Asian session saw increased upside momentum. The price ultimately broke above its 100-hour movie average (blue line in the chart above) currently at 1.32457. That break led to further momentum that saw the pair break above a key topside swing area between 1.3271 and 1.32853. The price moved above that area to a high of 1.32923, but the momentum faded and the price rotated back to the downside.
A retest of the 100-hour moving average found support buyers near that level, and the price has returned back to the key swing area (between 1.3271 and 1.32853).
What next?
The buyers had shot above the swing area today. However, you can also say that the sellers had their shot both yesterday below the 200-hour moving average, and today on the move back to the 100-hour moving average in the North American session today.
So the score is even. I give the short-term momentum tilt to the buyers on the ability to remain above the hourly moving averages. If the 1.32853 level is broken to the upside, a move toward the 38.2% retracement 1.3322 would be targeted. There is some resistance at 1.32128 as well.
Ultimately if the buyers are to take more control, getting above the 38.2% retracement is the minimum retracement level needed to surpass. Absent that and the buyers are just winning the short-term. They are not winning the medium or longer-term bias tilt.
