The USDCAD has moved below the 100 hour MA at 1.30971 and below an upward sloping trendline on the hourly chart as well. The pair is testing a swing area between 1.3077 and 1.3092. That swing area goes back as far as to May 12 (not shown). There are a number of swing highs and lows within that area.
Should the price be able to get below the 1.30774 level and stay below, would open the door for further downside probing with the low from Wednesday at 1.30626 (that was near swing highs on August 22 in August 23 as well), and the rising 200 hour moving average at 1.3036 (green line in the chart above) as the next downside targets.
On Tuesday, the USDCAD price briefly moved below the 200 hour moving average but could not sustain momentum (it was actually converged with the 100 hour moving average at the time). That failure led to the move higher on Tuesday, Wednesday and again yesterday before the declines seen today.
More momentum above the 100 hour moving average at 1.30971 would be needed to tilt the shorter-term bias back to the upside. The 1.3127 to 1.31373 would be the next upside target if the buyers return above the 100 hour MA in the short term.
The moves today are generally following the lower dollar bias today after the jobs report did not scare traders. Yields are lower in the US. Stocks are higher. There is some risk on. Oil prices are higher but off the highest levels as well (trade near the midpoint of the days range).
Sellers are making a play. Can they keep the momentum going?
