The USDCAD has had a down and up trading day.
The initial move to the downside fell below a swing area between 1.2585 and 1.2591 on its way to the low for the day at 1.2567. That low briefly moved below the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the April 5 low at 1.2571, but momentum could not be sustained
On the run higher, the price moved back above the near converged 100/200 hour moving averages (blue and green lines on the chart above), on its way to a swing area above between 1.26396 and 1.26452.
Sellers leaned against that swing area (see red numbered circles). The price of the USDCAD has been trading between the hourly moving averages below and that swing area above since then.
In between sits the 200 day moving average is found at 1.26243 which honestly has not been that great of a bias defining level. There has been a lot of ups and downs above and below that 200 day moving average going back to April 11.
What next?
Looking at the hourly chart, most of the price action cents April 7 has been in a value area between 1.2571 and 1.2645. There has been breaks above and breaks below, but those extremes have seen retraces back into the meat of the up and down trading range. At some point there will be a move outside of that red box with momentum that continues in the direction of the break.
Until then, the support and resistance during the North American session with the 100/200 hour moving average below, and the swing area above will be eyed to define close levels for traders to stage their battle.
If the topside is broken, look for a move back toward the high from April 13 at 1.26756.
Conversely if the 200 and 100 hour moving averages are broken, a return to the 38.2% retracement 1.2571 will be the next target.
